SpaceX Share Unlock Wipes Out a Record Earnings Bounce

SPCX stock closed at $144.75 on Thursday, down 9.14%, after up to 1.3 billion previously locked SpaceX shares became free to sell. Wednesday’s session had jumped 7.80% to $159.31 once the company booked its first profit as a public firm. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth had just lifted his target to $500.

The June listing’s own release calendar did the rest. The largest single unlock of the year arrived two trading days after the report, and the bounce was gone by the close.

SpaceX Gave Back the Whole Earnings Bounce

SpaceX scheduled results after market close on October 20 and a webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Revenue came in at $14.58 billion, up 161% from $5.58 billion a year earlier, and net income was $4.4 billion against a $1.1 billion loss. Shares closed Tuesday at $147.79, then ran as high as $166.18 on Wednesday before settling at $159.31.

Thursday opened at $154.21 and never got back to Wednesday’s close. The session low was $143.21. Volume reached 194.5 million shares, about twice the 65-day average of 97.67 million.

TWO DAYS ON THE TAPE

• Tuesday close: $147.79, the last print before the earnings release.
• Wednesday close: $159.31, up 7.80%, after the first profit as a public company.
• Thursday close: $144.75, down 9.14%, on 194.5 million shares.
• Thursday range: $154.25 high, $143.21 low, open $154.21.

At Wednesday’s close those 1.3 billion shares were worth about $207 billion. That is a ceiling on what became eligible, not a measure of what sold. Even if every share that changed hands on Thursday had come from the new tranche, 194.5 million prints would cover only about 15% of the pool.

Newly freed stock often sits with a transfer agent for two or three days before it can be offered in a brokerage account. A large part of Thursday’s tranche could not physically be sold in that session. The price still fell. The market sold the date, then left the actual paper for later in the week.

The Largest Unlock Since the June Listing

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 12 and sold about 639 million shares. Most of the company stayed with employees, early backers, and Elon Musk under lock-up terms in the offering prospectus that stagger sales instead of dumping the whole float on one morning.

The standard 180-day pool comes off in steps, some on fixed days counted from the June 11 pricing and some on the second full trading day after quarterly results. Thursday’s batch was 28% of that pool, about 43% larger than the 911.5 million shares that came free after the second-quarter report on August 6. A 10% bonus slice that needed closes at $175.50 never triggered.

THE LOCK-UP CALENDAR

The earlier windows had mixed prints: a 6% rise on the first one, two drops of about 4%, then three quiet days. None of those batches was as large as Thursday’s. An unlock is permission to sell, not an order to sell, which is why some of those dates passed with the stock higher. Thursday was the first release that fully reversed an earnings bounce, and it did so on a day when most of the new supply had not yet reached brokerage accounts.

Super Intelligence Passed Starlink in One Quarter

The company posted third-quarter results after the close that showed a business mix the June listing did not yet have. Super Intelligence, SpaceX’s name for its AI unit, booked $7.56 billion of revenue, more than nine times the $813 million of a year ago. That is 52% of the group, ahead of Connectivity’s $5.25 billion. The lift came from new cloud-services contracts, the Cursor purchase that closed on August 14 and contributed $608 million, and wider use of Grok.

We delivered another strong quarter in Q3. Revenue grew an impressive 161% year-over-year, fueled by continued momentum in Connectivity and a clear inflection in our Super Intelligence business.

Bret Johnsen, Chief Financial Officer, SpaceX third-quarter results

Operating income for the group was $2.79 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $8.8 billion, up 306% from $2.2 billion. Analysts had clustered near $12.7 billion of revenue. The beat, and Johnsen’s line on an “inflection,” is what sent the stock up 7.80% on Wednesday.

The $16.4 Billion Compute Bill

Operating income at the AI unit was $431 million, after $1.2 billion of share-based pay tied to Cursor. Capital spending at that unit was $16.44 billion of the company’s $19.59 billion total. Nameplate compute reached 1.7 gigawatts, up from 1.4 gigawatts in the second quarter. Management told the call it wants 2.5 to 3 gigawatts by year-end and $35 billion to $40 billion of spending in the fourth quarter alone.

Over the first nine months SpaceX generated $13.10 billion of operating cash and spent $48.07 billion on plant and equipment. Musk told the same call, “I think we’re going to face a shortage of super intelligence compute. And that shortage is going to remain for a long time.” Anmuth wrote that management told him the company is not considering a new share sale to fund that build.

Starlink Carried the Operating Profit

Connectivity, mostly Starlink, made $2.37 billion of operating income on $5.25 billion of revenue, a 45% margin, and spent $1.54 billion. Consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million, up 1.6 million in the quarter, with monthly ARPU of $69. The space segment, the original rocket line, had $1.77 billion of revenue and a $7 million operating loss after heavier Starship research spending. It flew 35 missions, 12 of them for customers.

Q3 REVENUE AND PROFIT BY SEGMENT

Musk said SpaceX will try to catch both the Super Heavy booster and Starship on Flight 15 next month. He also said Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees to talk about a merger, and that those committees “have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction. And obviously, there’s no guarantee that they will.” Backlog at September 30 was $63 billion. Guidance for first-quarter 2027 revenue is $33 billion to $37 billion.

Who Can Sell SpaceX Stock, and Who Cannot?

Employees and early investors in the standard 180-day pool can sell the shares that unlocked on October 22, plus another 328.4 million on October 26 and the rest on December 8. Elon Musk cannot sell until June 14, 2027. A group of large holders sits on a longer, staged timetable that runs through mid-2027.

WHO HOLDS THE RESTRICTED STOCK

• Standard 180-day pool: Employees and most pre-IPO investors, released in steps; Thursday’s 28% is now eligible.
• October 26 tranche: Up to 328.4 million more shares from the same pool, the last 7% window before December.
• December 8 remainder: About 798 million shares, the rest of the 180-day block.
• Elon Musk: No early release of any kind; 366-day lock-up, first session June 14, 2027.
• Extended large holders: Staged releases tied to later earnings dates and day counts into 2027.

Directors and officers have to file when they sell. Gwynne Shotwell, president and chief operating officer, sold $52.5 million of SpaceX stock in September, according to a Form 4. Rank-and-file employees and venture holders below 10% do not file those forms, so most selling from Thursday’s pool will never show up by name. Volume on the next few sessions is the cleaner tell.

A $500 Target on Thursday’s Close

Anmuth raised JPMorgan’s SpaceX target to $500 from $240 and kept an Overweight rating the morning after the report. He now models $254 billion of 2027 revenue and 10 gigawatts of compute by the end of that year. The $500 figure is 20 times his 2028 GAAP earnings estimate of $24.41 a share, more than triple Thursday’s close of $144.75.

UBS lifted its target to $230 from $210 and kept a Buy. TD Cowen went to $224 from $200, also a Buy. Those notes cited the same quarter Anmuth did: new compute contracts, Starship progress, and Grok. The targets did not move Thursday’s tape. The lock-up date did.

That gap is the listing working as designed and against itself at the same time. Underwriters stagger insider sales so a new public book is not immediately swamped. SpaceX wrote the largest step of that stagger to the second day after a quarterly report. The report was strong enough to produce a $500 target. The step was large enough to take the bounce back before most of the new shares could be offered.

328 Million More Shares Can Trade on Monday

October 24 is a Saturday, so the next fixed window, another 328.4 million shares, first trades on Monday, October 26. That is also the session when a large part of Thursday’s 1.3 billion-share batch is likely to finish moving from the transfer agent into brokerage accounts. The two supplies can hit the same tape.

December 8 then ends the 180-day lock-up with about 798 million shares still in that pool. Musk’s own holding stays locked until June 14, 2027. Until then the people who can sell are the employees and early investors the June deal let out in slices, not the founder whose name is on the rockets and the models.

Monday is the first morning when the paper Thursday freed, and the next 328.4 million shares, can actually be offered. The earnings are already on the page. The calendar still has the next print.

Disclaimer: This article is news reporting and analysis of SpaceX’s share-unlock calendar and third-quarter results. It is for information only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell SPCX or any other security, or a forecast of future prices. Readers should consult a licensed financial adviser or broker who can consider their own objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. Share counts, prices, and lock-up dates reflect company filings and market data for the sessions described and can change with later filings, trading, and corporate actions.