easyJet Shifted 400,000 Seats as Turkey Lost UK Flyers

easyJet pulled around 400,000 seats off Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt in March, then watched third-quarter profit fall from £286 million to £85 million. Spain, Italy and Greece took the UK flyers those seats had served.

The April warning was a network bet, not a travel ban. Destination counts through August show who collected the traffic, and the July numbers show why the airline still had a thin summer.

A March Move of 400,000 Seats

On 16 April 2026, easyJet told investors to expect a headline loss of £540 million to £560 million for the six months to 31 March, with a 90% load factor, up two points on the year. The airline said late demand for domestic routes, city breaks and the Western Mediterranean had offset war-related softness in Egypt, Turkey and Cyprus. Q2 revenue per available seat kilometre was up about 3%.

The loss landed on 21 May at £552 million, against £394 million a year earlier, a gap of £158 million. About £25 million of extra March fuel and a net rise in legal provisions on historic cases (about £30 million in April, £32 million in the May accounts) sat on top of planned winter flying and new Italian bases. Chief executive Kenton Jarvis had already described the first-half result as worse year on year because of the Middle East conflict and competition in some markets.

Despite these positives, our H1 financial performance worsened year on year, impacted by the conflict in the Middle East and the competitive environment in some markets.

Kenton Jarvis, CEO, 16 April 2026 trading update

The seat shift sat behind that language. In the May results presentation Jarvis said the airline had redeployed around 400,000 seats away from countries next to the fighting and onto domestic and city routes across the wider network. Some busy April and May flows were thinned because fuel was expensive. The net cut was 0.3% of seats. No Tel Aviv flying was on the board to cancel. Jarvis said no further network changes were planned and that the full summer schedule on sale would operate.

WHAT THE MARCH NETWORK REVIEW CHANGED

• The seats: Around 400,000 were moved off countries next to the conflict and onto domestic and city flying.
• The trim: Some high-frequency April and May routes were thinned after the fuel spike, for a 0.3% net seat cut.
• The passengers: Full-summer Manchester-Turkey flights were cancelled in late March, leaving package customers waiting on third-party operators for new plans.
• The hedge: On 16 April the airline was 70% covered for summer jet fuel at $706 per metric tonne, with the spot price at $1,500 on 15 April.

The balance sheet was the buffer. Net cash was £434 million and liquidity £4.7 billion at the half year, and easyJet owned 86% of its neo aircraft. That is why the airline could move metal in March instead of grounding it.

Spain, Italy and Greece Took the UK Flyers

UK travellers did not stop flying. They changed destination. Turizm Databank’s figures for the first seven months of 2026 show UK outbound air travel up 0.5% overall, while flights to Turkey fell -8.5% and flights to Cyprus fell 14.1%. Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal and Croatia took the extra traffic.

UK AIR TRAVEL TO SUMMER RIVALS, FIRST SEVEN MONTHS OF 2026

Inside Turkey the hit landed on the holiday airports, not on every city equally. UK air travel to Antalya fell 11.8%, to Dalaman 17.2%, to Bodrum 18% and to Izmir 14.2%. Istanbul was down 4.9%, while Sabiha Gökçen rose 10.3%. From January to August, 2,714,652 British tourists arrived in Turkey, against 3,002,928 a year earlier, a drop of 288,276 people.

József Váradi, chief executive of Wizz Air, said in June that Turkey, Egypt and Cyprus were seeing a very strong recovery, with some markets fully recovered. Search data from the same month showed hotel queries for Turkey and Egypt about a third higher week on week, and Cyprus up 29%. The later official counts do not match a full bounce-back for British visitors to Turkey and Cyprus. They match a scramble back from a deep March hole, at lower prices, that still left those two countries short of 2025.

Fuel Costs Cut Q3 Profit to £85 Million

The planes that went west still filled. They did not earn like 2025. On 23 July easyJet posted a headline profit before tax of £85 million for the quarter to 30 June, against £286 million a year earlier, a 70% drop. Group revenue was £2,983 million, up 2%. Passengers were 25.8 million, against 25.9 million, on 29.0 million seats against 28.7 million. Load factor was 88.9%, against 90.2%, a fall of 1.3 points. Revenue per available seat kilometre was down 3%, one point better than the booked position in May.

Q3 FY26, QUARTER TO 30 JUNE

• Headline profit: £85 million, against £286 million in Q3 FY25.
• Fuel bill: £732 million, against £627 million, an extra £105 million.
• Load factor: 88.9%, against 90.2% a year earlier.
• On-time flying: 78% year to date, up two points, with airline customer satisfaction at 84%.

Fuel, not empty cabins, did that damage. Fuel cost per seat kilometre rose 13%. Prices peaked at about $1,800 per metric tonne in April. Jarvis said in May that people were waiting, watching and then booking later. The July update still described strong demand in the month of departure, too weak to offset the weaker curve after the conflict. By 23 July the airline was 68% sold for the fourth quarter, two points behind, with yields broadly flat, and 79% hedged on Q4 jet fuel at $786 per metric tonne.

Jan De Raeymaeker, chief financial officer, said at the half year that the winter loss increased the reliance on a strong summer. The summer that followed produced a profit. It produced a much smaller one, because the unhedged slice of the tank was bought in a spike and because tickets were sold later and cheaper to keep the load factor near 89%.

Why Did Egypt Not Follow Turkey Down?

easyJet grouped Egypt with Turkey and Cyprus in April as a soft eastern market. Country-level arrivals did not follow that script. Egypt’s Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities recorded 478,677 UK arrivals in the first five months of 2026, up 9.6%, with total arrivals from the top 15 markets at 5,193,270, up 8.2%. Around 9 million tourists visited in the first half, up 4%. For January to August the country was at about 12.7 million visitors, against 12.2 million, still up about 4%.

Hurghada tells the same split. The Egyptian Travel Agents Association there said the airport took about 3 million tourists in the first eight months, up about 3%. Germans led with about 825,800, then Russians with about 638,800. The British market was fourth at around 245,700. Charter flying from Germany, the UK and Eastern Europe, plus a summer incentive for airlines into Hurghada and Sharm El-Sheikh, kept the Red Sea open even as easyJet moved some of its own seats west.

The airline is already putting Egypt back. Reginald Otten, easyJet’s deputy director for France and North Africa, said North Africa is in strong growth at Nice, and the carrier planned two weekly Nice-Cairo flights from October through March, with one-way fares from €54. Turkey and Cyprus did not get that winter vote of confidence on the same timetable.

Package Holidays Posted £84 Million in Q3

Inside the group, the holidays arm was the unit that did not crack. In the first half it made £61 million of headline profit before tax, up 39%, on 1.3 million customers, up 22%, with the attachment rate on beach and city flights at 6.3%. Revenue excluding flights was £519 million, up 30%. In the third quarter holidays profit was £84 million, against £86 million, up 7% excluding currency, on 8% more customers and £489 million of revenue, up 14%. By 23 July the holidays book was 87% sold for the fourth quarter.

That is the commercial logic of moving seats onto cities and the Western Mediterranean. A package can be re-cut to Palma, Faro or a French city faster than a hotel in Bodrum can refill a cancelled British week. Jarvis’s April line about great-value flights and holidays was not colour. Holidays, which the group wants at £450 million of profit by the 2030 financial year, kept earning while the airline’s third-quarter profit collapsed on fuel.

The cost of that pivot showed up as later bookings and more price stimulation, not as a holidays loss. Second-half holidays growth was always going to be slower than the original plan because summer demand wobbled after March. The 87% sold figure for Q4 is the proof that the packages still moved, just closer to departure.

An 8% Drop in British Arrivals to Cyprus

Cyprus lived the eastern-Med year in public monthly prints. Arrivals fell 30.7% in March and 27.6% in April, then 1.7% in June and 1.1% in July. The Statistical Service still closed August down. It recorded 581,880 tourist arrivals in August 2026, against 602,026 in August 2025, a 3.3% drop. January to August arrivals were 2,820,649, against 3,034,155, down 7.0%.

The British market remained the largest and still shrank. UK arrivals in August were 177,603, 30.5% of the total and 8.0% lower than 193,091 a year earlier. Israel was the exception, at 135,628 arrivals, up 28.4%. Nick Aristou, commercial director of Muskita, which runs three Cyprus hotels, said the group was down 20% for summer back in March and was clawing back lost ground from the UK and Europe from May, after cutting prices.

THE YEAR ON THE EASTERN MED BOARD

1. March 2026: easyJet reviews the summer network and moves around 400,000 seats off countries next to the conflict, onto domestic and city routes.
2. 16 April 2026: The airline warns of a £540 million to £560 million first-half loss and of war-related softness in Egypt, Turkey and Cyprus.
3. 21 May 2026: First-half loss is confirmed at £552 million, with 72% of second-half fuel hedged at $726 per metric tonne.
4. 23 July 2026: Third-quarter profit prints at £85 million, against £286 million, after a £105 million fuel hit.
5. August 2026: Cyprus arrivals finish 3.3% lower, with British visitors down 8.0%.
6. 24 September 2026: easyJet puts 18 new UK routes on sale for summer 2027, including Larnaca from Newcastle.

By early October the Western Mediterranean airports that absorbed the March capacity had their own problem. Cabin crew at easyJet’s Portuguese bases were due to strike from 2 to 6 October 2026, hitting Lisbon, Porto and Faro.

Newcastle to Larnaca Returns for Summer 2027

The eastern Med is not closed. On 24 September easyJet put 18 new routes on sale from 10 UK airports for summer 2027, spanning Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Greece, Cyprus, Montenegro and Bulgaria. Six of those routes go to Spain, including the airline’s first UK flights to Girona. The Cyprus vote is a new weekly Newcastle to Larnaca route from 31 March 2027. Spain still gets the thicker add. Cyprus gets one weekly return.

That is the map the March review created. Turkey and Cyprus lost a British summer they will not fully recast in the 2026 counts. Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal flew the extra people. Egypt, fed by charters and other carriers, grew anyway. easyJet’s holidays unit banked £84 million in the third quarter. The airline banked £85 million, against £286 million, because jet fuel at the spike cost £105 million extra and because the booking curve never fully lengthened.

Full-year figures for the 12 months to 30 September 2026 have not yet been published. The 2027 board already shows where the next summer’s extra metal is going: six new UK routes to Spain, and one weekly aircraft back to Larnaca.

Frequently Asked Questions

How Much Does a One-Point RASK Swing Change easyJet Revenue?

In the 16 April update, easyJet said every one percentage point move in third-quarter revenue per available seat kilometre equalled about £26 million of revenue, and every one point in the fourth quarter equalled about £33 million. Those sensitivities are why a late, cheaper booking curve can wipe a large slice of summer profit even when load factor stays near 89%.

What Did the First Winter at Milan Linate and Rome Fiumicino Cost?

The 16 April trading update put the first year of winter operations at the two new Italian bases at a £30 million investment cost, in line with plan. The May results kept that £30 million drag in the airline’s £581 million first-half loss before interest and tax, separate from the fuel spike and the legal provisions.

How Many British Tourists Went to Hurghada From January to August?

The Egyptian Travel Agents Association in Hurghada put British arrivals at around 245,700 in the first eight months of 2026, fourth behind Germany, Russia and Poland, in a local total of about 3 million tourists, up about 3%. That British volume is why Egypt’s national counts rose even as easyJet described its own Egypt flying as soft in April.

When Does easyJet Start Newcastle to Larnaca Flights?

The weekly service is due to launch on 31 March 2027, on Wednesdays, with fares from £87.98, as part of 18 new UK routes put on sale on 24 September 2026. easyJet will be the only carrier on 10 of those 18 routes, and package holidays are on sale on all of them through easyJet holidays.