Hopes for normalization collapse as Riyadh pivots to strategic agreements with Tehran and Washington — leaving Jerusalem in the cold.
Israel’s once-glittering dream of formal ties with Saudi Arabia has quietly crumbled. It didn’t happen with an explosion or a headline-grabbing announcement. It slipped through the cracks — buried beneath nuclear cooperation agreements and geopolitical recalibrations that have no space left for Israeli ambitions.
On Sunday, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stood in Riyadh and outlined the future: an American-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement that’s officially in motion. Iran, too, has reentered serious diplomatic discussions with the Kingdom. The noise around Israel? Barely a whisper.
From centerpiece to footnote
Just a year ago, normalization with Saudi Arabia was billed as the crown jewel of Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy. It had the sparkle of history, the backing of Washington, and the potential to reorder the Middle East.
That vision is now fading into the background.
Two things are happening at once: Riyadh is reshaping its alliances around energy and nuclear development, while Israel is increasingly consumed by its own internal political crises and escalating control over the Palestinian territories. The one-state reality — where Israel effectively governs millions of Palestinians without granting them sovereignty or equal rights — is no longer something foreign diplomats politely ignore. It’s starting to define how others treat Israel.
One senior Gulf diplomat, speaking to regional press on condition of anonymity, put it bluntly: “Why invest in a house on fire?”
The nuclear pivot — Saudi’s new power play
The US-Saudi nuclear deal isn’t just about power plants. It’s a handshake with global consequences.
Saudi Arabia has long signaled its interest in civilian nuclear energy. The new agreement reportedly includes uranium enrichment on Saudi soil, a sensitive detail that usually alarms nuclear watchdogs and Israeli security officials alike.
What’s more telling? There’s no clause involving Israel.
This move comes as Tehran and Riyadh continue easing tensions, even exploring economic and energy coordination. These are not isolated moves. They’re a pattern — and Israel isn’t in it.
Here’s a quick breakdown of recent strategic moves:
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March 2024: China brokers a high-level meeting between Iranian and Saudi officials to discuss energy exports and regional security.
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February 2025: Saudi Arabia agrees to a memorandum of understanding on regional nuclear non-proliferation — notably excluding Israel.
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April 2025: The U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal becomes public. Israel is not consulted.
A seat no longer saved at the table
In practical terms, this means fewer invitations for Israel to global summits and fewer mentions in major bilateral dialogues between Washington and Riyadh.
Prime Minister Netanyahu had once hoped the Abraham Accords would serve as a launchpad for a historic breakthrough with Saudi Arabia. The UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco signed on in 2020, reshaping regional diplomacy. But Saudi Arabia? It held out — waiting for more.
That “more” used to mean American security guarantees and civilian nuclear energy assistance. Now it seems the Kingdom decided to go ahead without Israeli normalization — and still got what it wanted.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s next foreign visit is to Riyadh. Jerusalem isn’t on his itinerary. That’s not an oversight. It’s a message.
One-state reality makes Israel harder to sell
At the heart of this diplomatic chill is a painful truth: Israel’s deepening grip over the West Bank and continued settlement expansion are making normalization politically toxic for Arab leaders.
Even those who once leaned toward détente now struggle to justify open ties with a state that is, in their view, shedding its democratic image in favor of entrenched control.
This isn’t just moral posturing — it’s strategic calculus. If Saudi Arabia is trying to position itself as a mediator, innovator, and bridge-builder between East and West, then aligning openly with an increasingly hardline Israel doesn’t serve that goal.
One regional analyst described it like this: “You can’t claim to lead the Arab world and ignore Palestine. It’s political suicide.”
Israel’s diplomatic relevance is shrinking
The numbers are starting to reflect the drift.
| Year | Major Bilateral Summits Attended by Israel | U.S. Military Support Announcements | Saudi-Israel Public Statements |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 5 | 3 |
| 2023 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 2024 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 2025* | 1 (so far) | 1 | 0 |
*As of April 2025
It’s not just that Israel isn’t leading the headlines anymore. It’s being written out of the script entirely.
What now?
Right now, there’s no clear Plan B.
Netanyahu’s team insists that normalization is still possible, citing “quiet diplomacy” and long-term regional interests. But that optimism rings hollow when Saudi Arabia is actively writing its future deals without even looping Israel in.
Meanwhile, opposition figures within Israel argue that the country’s diplomatic malaise is self-inflicted.
“This isn’t about PR,” one Knesset member told a Hebrew-language outlet. “It’s about how we behave, how we govern, and how the world sees us.”
