A bombshell investigation by Israeli outlet Ynet has just laid bare the full scope of how an elaborate, years-in-the-making plot to overthrow Tehran collapsed spectacularly. The plan had everything: staged protests, a political assassination, and a ground invasion. Yet the Islamic Republic is still standing.
The Three-Part Plan That Was Supposed to Change the Middle East
Although Mossad officials had long examined the possibilities of instigating uprisings against the Islamic Republic, they had previously dismissed such plans as futile, focusing instead on crippling economic sanctions and assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists.
Following the Twelve-Day War in June 2025, Mossad chief David Barnea reversed the Mossad’s approach and began investigating plans to overthrow the Iranian government in the event of another war. The plan Barnea devised aimed to overthrow the Islamic Republic by galvanizing the Iranian opposition after several days of US-Israeli strikes and assassinations, prompting them to riot and rebel against the government. This would include decapitating Iran’s leadership and running intelligence operations to trigger a mass uprising.
The strategy had three distinct parts working in parallel:
- Mossad-engineered street protests inside Iran to fracture public confidence in the regime
- The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the opening of any war
- A large-scale Kurdish ground invasion from Iraq into western Iran
The plan was presented to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who adopted it. It was also presented to senior Trump administration officials in mid-January 2026 who, despite serious doubts about its viability, expressed optimism.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly described Netanyahu’s outline as “farcical,” and both JD Vance and General Dan Caine of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned against going through with it. Trump ultimately approved it anyway.
The January Protests Were Not What the World Was Told
The original plan had set June 2026 as the war date. By that point, preparations would be complete and conditions would be ripe.
Then something happened that changed the entire timeline.
In January 2026, tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets. The enormous work that Israel had put in was behind those demonstrations. The protests did not bring down the Iranian regime, but they had a decisive influence far away, at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s estate in Florida.
The Mossad-backed protests helped convince the Trump administration to join the war on Iran. After the demonstrations began, Netanyahu instructed the IDF and the Mossad to bring forward the timing of the operation.
According to The New York Times, Netanyahu made an hour-long presentation to Trump and his top aides in the White House Situation Room on February 11, 2026, contending that the Islamic Republic was ready to fall and that a US-Israeli attack would result in certain victory.
Trump believed it. The plan got the green light.
At 2:30 a.m. EST on February 28, 2026, Donald Trump released an eight-minute video statement on Truth Social, stating that the purpose of the US strikes in Iran was effectively regime change. That same day, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, was assassinated in an Israeli air attack. Iranian state media announced his death the following day.
The Kurdish Invasion That Never Got Off the Ground
The third pillar of the plan, the Kurdish ground offensive, was seen inside Israeli intelligence circles as the key to “breaking the fear barrier” among Iranians who had already watched thousands of their fellow citizens killed in regime crackdowns.
According to reports, tens of thousands of armed Kurdish fighters planned to cross the border from Iraq into Iran in the first days of the war, operating under massive US and Israeli air cover.
It never happened. The reasons were multiple and devastating.
The invasion was postponed after news of its impending start was leaked in US media. Fox News reported on March 4 that an offensive had begun. The Iranian regime then bolstered its defenses in the northwest, ramped up military pressure on Kurds in northern Iraq, and exerted diplomatic pressure on Baghdad to thwart the plan.
The plan was described as being “full of holes.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a longtime opponent of Kurdish military activity, pressed Trump not to go ahead with it. Erdogan reportedly convinced Trump in a furious phone call to abandon the idea.
The Kurds themselves were wary, fearful of their prospects against Iran, especially when the US and Israel were not prepared to send in ground forces. A Kurdish source told reporters that they worried the US and Israel would stop the war midway, the regime would recover, and it would slaughter the Kurds.
A second window for the invasion was later considered but ultimately scrapped. The plan is now described as “off the agenda.”
Iran’s Regime Did Not Fall. It Got Harder.
This is where the entire Israeli calculation fell apart at its foundation.
The opening strike was seemingly based on the assumption that eliminating the head of state would precipitate the instant capitulation of the government. That did not happen. Another Khamenei, the second son Mojtaba, was selected as the new supreme leader, with the powerful IRGC and key leaders pledging full loyalty.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forced through the choice of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, seeing him as a more pliant figure who would back their hardline policies. Already very powerful, the IRGC gained even greater sway after the war began.
Iran’s regime hardliners and the IRGC remained in power despite US and Israeli strikes and Israel’s decapitation strategy to remove key leaders. The newly elected Supreme Leader only reinforced this control.
US intelligence officials noted that “even if you remove the ayatollah, his successors are all hardliners too,” acknowledging that the result was an Iranian government largely controlled by the IRGC and others ideologically aligned with those who were eliminated.
The regime did not fall. It reorganized.
Where Things Stand Now, and What Comes Next
Operation Epic Fury, the US code name for its joint military operations with Israel against Iran, began on February 28, 2026, and concluded on May 5. After more than five weeks of fighting, the United States and Iran agreed on April 7 to 8 to a ceasefire that included Israel.
But “ceasefire” is a generous word for what actually exists right now.
After the failure of the Islamabad peace talks, Trump said he no longer cared about negotiations and announced a naval blockade of Iran from April 13. There is currently a dual blockade, with the US Navy blockading Iran and Iran blockading the Persian Gulf.
On May 10, Iran conducted drone strikes against Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait, following threats to target American sites and enemy ships if its tankers were attacked.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared that Israel was defeated in the conflict because it failed to trigger unrest inside Iran, despite expectations that military strikes would lead to domestic turmoil.
| What Israel Planned | What Actually Happened |
|---|---|
| Mass uprising after Khamenei’s assassination | IRGC quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as new leader |
| Kurdish ground invasion to stretch the regime | Plan leaked, abandoned after Turkish, Kurdish pushback |
| Mossad-engineered protests to collapse the state | Protests failed to topple the regime |
| “Total victory” over Iran’s Resistance | Fragile ceasefire, dual blockade, war still smoldering |
A severe internal dispute erupted between the Israeli army and the Mossad over the ultimate goal of the war. The IDF views the removal of uranium from Iranian territory as the ultimate achievement. The Mossad, however, believed the objective was toppling the regime and still insists on this.
That unresolved fight says everything about what went wrong. Israel went to war with two completely different end goals inside its own government, sold a fantastical plan to a US president who was warned against it, and watched each pillar of that plan crumble in real time. The costs, measured in thousands of civilians dead across Iran, Lebanon, Israel, and the Gulf states, and millions displaced, are staggering. The Islamic Republic is battered, more authoritarian, and firmly in place. As Ynet’s own investigators wrote of the operation: “what started as a far-reaching Israeli move, rich in imagination, final in its solution, ends in heartache.” Those words were written by Israelis, about their own government’s catastrophic failure. History will not be kind to the architects of this war.
What do you think the long-term fallout of this failed plan will be for the region? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.
