Ecuador and Germany published their predicted lineups on the morning of June 25 ahead of the Group E decider at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The predicted XIs, per Al Bawaba, told two different stories: Ecuador in a 3-4-3 anchored by Moises Caicedo and Enner Valencia, Germany in a 4-3-3 with Oliver Baumann in goal and a rotated midfield of Nadiem Amiri, Angelo Stiller, and Leon Goretzka.
By full time, both predictions were significantly off, and Ecuador had come from behind to win 2-1 and book a place in the World Cup knockout stage for only the second time. Gonzalo Plata scored the winner 13 minutes from time at the East Rutherford venue, after Leroy Sane had opened the scoring inside two minutes and Nilson Angulo had equalised seven minutes later. Germany’s predicted XI was a near-total miss. The actual selection went first-choice, and the result went to the team that needed it most.
Where Group E Stood Heading Into the Match
Group E was decided in its closing 90 minutes. Germany arrived at MetLife atop the table with six points, having beaten Curacao 7-1 and Ivory Coast 2-1. Ecuador had one point from two games, a draw against Curacao and a loss to Ivory Coast. The four-time champions had already secured their place in the round of 32. Ecuador had not.
Per Al Bawaba’s predicted XI, published the same morning, the match preview captured each side’s likely shape on a day when Germany could rest names and Ecuador had to gamble. Kickoff at the MetLife Stadium event page was listed at 4:00 PM ET, with doors opening at 1:00 PM. Attendance on matchday reached 80,663, with a largely Ecuadorian crowd packed into the New Jersey venue.
Group E Going Into Matchday 3
- Germany: 2 played, 2 won, 6 points, top of Group E, already through to the round of 32
- Ivory Coast: Through to the round of 32 as Group E runner-up
- Ecuador: 2 played, 1 drawn, 1 lost, 1 point, must win to advance
- Curacao: Eliminated after three group games
The Predicted XIs the Morning Published
Per the Al Bawaba predicted lineup, Ecuador were set to deploy a 3-4-3 with Galindez in goal and a back three of Ordonez, Pacho, and Hincapie. Angelo Preciado, Alan Franco, Moises Caicedo, and Pervis Estupinan formed a midfield four, with John Yeboah, Enner Valencia, and Gonzalo Plata up front. The selections reflected Ecuador’s need for cohesion over experimentation, with Caicedo at Chelsea, Hincapie at Bayer Leverkusen, and Pacho at Paris Saint-Germain all playing at top European clubs.
Germany’s predicted XI ran Baumann in goal; Kimmich, Thiaw, Rudiger, and Raum in defense; Amiri, Stiller, and Goretzka in midfield; Leweling, Undav, and Beier up front in a 4-3-3. The names signalled a rotated side. First-choice goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, plus the attacking trio of Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz, and Leroy Sane were absent from the predicted shape. Germany manager Julian Nagelsmann had the room to rotate, with top spot already locked and a round-of-32 tie in Foxborough on Monday the next fixed point.
Ecuador’s Predicted XI (3-4-3)
- Goalkeeper: Hernan Galindez
- Defenders: Joel Ordonez, Willian Pacho, Piero Hincapie
- Midfielders: Angelo Preciado, Alan Franco, Moises Caicedo, Pervis Estupinan
- Forwards: John Yeboah, Enner Valencia, Gonzalo Plata
What Both Sides Actually Deployed
Germany went closer to first-choice than the predicted XI had suggested. The actual selection was Neuer in goal; Kimmich, Rudiger, Tah, and Raum in defense; Nmecha and Pavlovic in a midfield two; Sane, Musiala, and Wirtz behind Havertz in a 4-2-3-1. Only David Raum and Antonio Rudiger were new, replacing the injured Nathaniel Brown and the World Cup-ruled-out Nico Schlotterbeck.
Nagelsmann had told the media a day in advance that wholesale changes would not be made. Undav, who scored both goals off the bench in the 2-1 win over Ivory Coast, stayed on the bench until the hour mark. Beier, Amiri, Stiller, Goretzka, Leweling, Thiaw, and Baumann never made it on. The rotated predicted XI was, in effect, the lineup that did not play.
Ecuador’s actual XI shifted shape too. The confirmed selection ran Galindez; Franco, Ordonez, Pacho, and Hincapie at the back; Yeboah, Vite, Caicedo, and Angulo across midfield; Plata and Valencia up front in a 4-4-2. Franco dropped from a predicted midfield role to right-back, with Pedro Vite entering central midfield and Angulo, absent from the predicted XI entirely, starting on the left.
The divergence from the predicted XIs told a different story for each side. For Germany, the selection effectively admitted that the predicted rotation was never the real plan. A 4-2-3-1 with Sane, Musiala, and Wirtz behind Havertz is the shape Germany has built the tournament around. For Ecuador, the switch to a 4-4-2 reflected the win-or-burn stakes, asking Caicedo to sit deeper than the predicted midfield role had, with Vite and Angulo providing the wide outlet.
Predicted XI vs Actual Selection
| Team | Predicted XI | Actual XI |
|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | Galindez; Ordonez, Pacho, Hincapie; Preciado, Franco, Caicedo, Estupinan; Yeboah, Valencia, Plata (3-4-3) | Galindez; Franco, Ordonez, Pacho, Hincapie; Yeboah, Vite, Caicedo, Angulo; Plata, Valencia (4-4-2) |
| Germany | Baumann; Kimmich, Thiaw, Rudiger, Raum; Amiri, Stiller, Goretzka; Leweling, Undav, Beier (4-3-3) | Neuer; Kimmich, Rudiger, Tah, Raum; Nmecha, Pavlovic; Sane, Musiala, Wirtz; Havertz (4-2-3-1) |
How the Match Played Out at MetLife
The actual lineups set up a match that swung on individual moments rather than the structural questions the predicted XI had framed. The 4-4-2 sat deep, the 4-2-3-1 pushed Sane and Wirtz high, and the spaces opened in transition.
Sane fired Germany ahead less than two minutes in, sweeping in a first-time shot from Wirtz’s lay-off in the area. Ecuador were incensed that Aleksandar Pavlovic was not punished for a high boot on Pedro Vite earlier in the move. The decision to let the goal stand led to a furious reaction from the Ecuador bench. Seven minutes later, Angulo, one of the names that had not featured in the predicted XI, drilled a 20-yard shot past Neuer after Felix Nmecha lost possession in his own half. The score held at 1-1 through to the break.
The second half brought a VAR intervention that overturned a Germany penalty when Joel Ordonez upended Kai Havertz, after a foul by Sane on Vite in the build-up. Vite, also outside the predicted XI, kept drawing the fouls that shaped the referee’s reading of the match. Enner Valencia‘s fierce effort was beaten away by Neuer. Plata steered wide from a Moises Caicedo cross, and Sane had a tame chance saved by Hernan Galindez.
Then, in the 77th minute, Kevin Rodriguez flicked on a corner and Plata stabbed home from right in front of Neuer. The largely Ecuadorian crowd in New Jersey erupted. Germany’s 11-match winning run came to an end.
Where Both Sides Go From Here
Ecuador advance to the round of 32 as one of the eight best third-placed teams, the country’s second knockout appearance at a men’s World Cup. Wild celebrations followed among the largely Ecuadorian crowd at MetLife as the final whistle went. Ecuadorian flags were draped across most visible seating sections throughout the second half, and the noise rarely dipped.
Germany travel to Foxborough for their last-32 tie against another third-placed finisher on Monday, in their first World Cup knockout match since lifting the trophy in 2014. Nagelsmann still has Sane, Wirtz, Havertz, Musiala, and Neuer fit for the knockout stage, and the MetLife loss is a result, not a collapse. The German XI that started at MetLife looks closer to the side that will line up in Foxborough than the rotated shape the morning’s predicted XI had suggested. The injury to Schlotterbeck ends his tournament; Raum and Rudiger are the two confirmed changes for Monday.
Ecuador wait to learn their opponent. The draw for the round of 32 is expected in the coming days, and a similar pre-match piece on Colombia vs DR Congo’s predicted lineups ran in the same format for Group K.
