On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury on Iran. Gulf Arab nations never asked for it and were never consulted. Within hours, Iranian missiles and drones began slamming into their airports, oil fields, and cities. Their crime? Hosting American military bases. This war has now ripped apart a dangerous illusion that has cost the Arab world dearly.
A War Gulf States Never Agreed To
On February 28, the United States Armed Forces launched Operation Epic Fury with clear stated objectives: destroy Iran’s offensive missiles, dismantle its missile production, and ensure that Iran would never acquire nuclear weapons. The Gulf states never wanted any of this. By early 2026, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE had all signaled that they would not allow the US to use their airspace for a strike on Iran. Their message went unheard. US President Donald Trump said his “biggest surprise” since unleashing a war in the Middle East had been Iran’s attacks on the Arab Gulf states, the very nations he counts as America’s closest and richest partners. “Unbelievable,” a former US intelligence official said in response. “It’s as if the US was operating and planning in a bubble for the last year. This is what Trump was warned of in conversations with Gulf rulers, and presumably his own intelligence briefings.” **That single reaction tells you everything about the Arab world’s dangerous dependency on America.** In launching its war alongside Israel against Iran, the US sidelined its Gulf partners, ignoring their appeals and concerns. As the Trump administration then attempted to negotiate with Iran, it again appeared to have the interests of Israel as its top priority.
When US Bases Became Targets, Not Shields
Iran retaliated under Operation True Promise IV almost immediately, extending the war’s geographic footprint to seven countries within 48 hours: Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. For the first time in history, Iran attacked all Gulf Cooperation Council countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Few Gulf monarchies had anticipated this escalation. Here is what Gulf nations absorbed between late February and early April 2026:
- UAE: 438 ballistic missiles, 2,012 drones, and 19 cruise missiles, according to the UAE Ministry of Defence. Interception debris and falling projectiles landed on populated areas in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, causing damage to civilian infrastructure and starting fires.
- Qatar: 203 missiles and 87 drones targeted the country between February 28 and March 18, in addition to an attack involving two fighter jets.
- Saudi Arabia: Hit with at least 38 missiles and 435 drones. Intercepted drones over Ras Tanura forced a temporary shutdown of the oil facility, and another strike hit the US embassy in Riyadh.
- Bahrain: 132 missiles and 234 drones fired as of March 18. The Kingdom, which hosts the US Fifth Fleet, shot down 45 Iranian missiles and nine drones. Video showed parts of Fifth Fleet’s headquarters were hit in the initial attack.
- Kuwait: Two people were injured when a “hostile drone” struck a residential building. The country’s main international airport and defense equipment were attacked, and six power lines went out of service. Kuwait also announced the death of a child who died from injuries sustained after drone debris fell on a residential area.
- Jordan: One of the most consequential strikes destroyed the AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, one of only nine such radars in the entire US global inventory, valued at $300 million. Al Jazeera described this as “blinding US eyes in the Middle East.”
**Gulf states burned through approximately 2,400 interceptor missiles just to survive this conflict.** By late March 2026, analysts estimated that the Gulf states had burned through the majority of their interceptor missiles, with UAE and Kuwait having spent some 75 percent of their Patriot missile stock, while Bahrain was estimated to have launched up to 87 percent. In the first four days of Operation Epic Fury, US Patriot batteries defending Gulf states fired 943 interceptors, equivalent to the number produced at Lockheed Martin and Boeing factories in 18 months. As Omani analyst Abdullah Baabood put it, “Iran is making sure the Gulf states start to think that US military bases in the region are not a strategic asset but a liability.”
The Staggering Human and Economic Toll
By the end of March 2026, the cost to Arab countries was estimated at over $120 billion. The attacks left enormous damage, thousands of people dead in Iran, Lebanon, Israel, and Gulf Arab states, and millions of people displaced across the region. The 2026 Iran war, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, led to what the International Energy Agency characterized as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” The economic wreckage cascaded fast and wide:
- Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, 2026, Brent crude surged past $120 per barrel and forced QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on all exports.
- Gulf states and Iraq lost approximately $1.1 billion per day in oil revenue while the Strait remained closed.
- The oil production of Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE collectively dropped by a reported 6.7 million barrels per day by March 10, and by at least 10 million barrels per day by March 12.
- The maritime blockade triggered a “grocery supply emergency” across GCC states, which rely on the Strait for over 80 percent of their caloric intake. By mid-March, 70 percent of the region’s food imports were disrupted, forcing retailers to airlift staples and triggering a 40 to 120 percent spike in consumer prices.
- The crisis shifted toward fears of a humanitarian emergency following Iranian strikes on desalination plants, the source of 99 percent of drinking water in Kuwait and Qatar.
The cascading economic fallout from the conflict is radiating well beyond the Gulf, reshaping markets and supply chains potentially for years to come. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical global chokepoint where disruption threatens not just oil shipments but also fertilizer access and high-tech supply chains. **The Arab world did not start this war. But it is paying the steepest price.**
Arab Opinion Has Turned Against Washington
The anger among Arab peoples is not just emotional. It has hardened into strategic calculation. A 2026 Arab Opinion Index survey found that 77 percent of respondents said US policies threaten regional security and stability, and 84 percent felt that Israeli policies endanger the region. A surge of regional violence, shifting alignments, and growing doubts about Washington’s reliability have pushed Qatar and Saudi Arabia into the most consequential reassessment of their security strategies in decades. The Quincy Institute found that both countries, historically the two largest buyers of US defense technology, are recalibrating their dependence on the United States. The betrayal runs deeper than just this war. The Gulf’s doubts about US security commitments had crystallized as early as 2019, when the Trump administration failed to respond to an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil installations that emanated from Iran. A similar episode occurred when the Biden administration did not respond to Houthi attacks on the UAE. Saudi Arabia and the UAE then moved to patch up their ties with Iran. The Arab monarchs’ hopes that fostering better diplomatic ties with Iran would earn them goodwill in the event of an Israeli or US war with Iran have gone up in smoke, literally. During the recent conflict, even senior diplomats and security officials in allied countries reportedly found themselves outside key decision-making circles, learning about major operations through media reports rather than formal channels. This reinforced the Gulf perception that opaque American decision-making can directly threaten their interests. There is now a growing demand that regional security decisions not be formulated entirely outside the region.
Can the Arab World Build Security of Its Own?
The 2026 war has forced an urgent and long-overdue question into the open. There can be no durable regional stability built on dependence on the US. A power located thousands of kilometres away, rooted in a different demographic and geographic reality, cannot be depended upon to defend Arab interests. Some states are already acting on this reality. Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out during the war. The attacks by the Saudi Air Force were assessed to have been carried out in late March. The UAE also secretly carried out multiple military strikes on Iran. Bloomberg reported the UAE carried out strikes before and after the April 8 ceasefire. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE all signed defense agreements with Ukraine in late March, a move that could enable the integration of low-cost Ukrainian counter-drone systems into Gulf defense capabilities. Instead of investing more resources in an alliance with Washington, Arab states should focus on intra-regional development aimed at economic, security, and military self-sufficiency. They should focus on internal dialogue, greater cohesion, and a broader strategic framework that secures balances of power based on political partnership rather than reliance on external patrons.
The transformations underway suggest that Gulf security can no longer be managed through unilateral national approaches or total reliance on the American security umbrella. It has become a collective regional issue, requiring a restructuring of joint deterrence and defense. The roadblocks are real. Gulf states cannot yet produce their own advanced interceptors. No alternative power currently offers the raw military depth that Washington can. But the direction of travel is no longer in doubt. The missiles that fell on Gulf cities in 2026 did not only hit airports and oil refineries. They struck at the very heart of a decades-long strategic illusion. The war has highlighted a critical lesson: partners are most valuable when they enhance strategic autonomy, preparedness, and combat effectiveness rather than when they simply promise external protection. The Arab world is waking up, slowly and painfully, to a truth its leaders have avoided for too long. Security, like sovereignty, cannot be borrowed from someone else’s army. The question now is not whether the Arab world must change, but whether it will have the courage and unity to do so before the next war is launched in its backyard. Drop your thoughts in the comments below. Do you believe the Arab world can build a real, independent security framework? Should Gulf states renegotiate the terms of US military presence? This conversation is more urgent than ever, and it deserves your voice. Share this story and join the discussion using #IranWar, which is trending globally right now.
