A new wave of U.S. tariffs may soon hit Arab economies hard, with Morocco standing in the line of fire. A UN report flags over $22 billion in non-oil exports at risk, casting a shadow over regional growth just as supply chains were starting to shift.
Morocco Caught in the Crossfire of U.S. Trade Moves
The UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) didn’t mince words. Its latest policy brief dropped a clear warning: the U.S.’s freshly announced tariffs could derail export momentum for several Arab nations.
The country has spent years growing its export footprint in the U.S. market. Now, all of that progress could be knocked sideways. According to ESCWA, the ripple effect could land heavily on Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, and Jordan—countries already battling inflation and tight fiscal space.
And it’s not just trade. The financial implications could sting, too.
$114 Million in New Pressure? It’s Coming Fast
The UN estimates these tariffs could raise borrowing costs across the region. For 2025 alone, the added cost could clock in at around $114 million.
With tighter budgets, governments may have to rethink where to spend. Social welfare programs and critical investment projects could end up taking a hit. That’s a dangerous mix when economies are already facing global uncertainty—from war in Gaza to oil market swings and climate shocks.
One-sentence paragraph? Here you go.
Morocco’s policymakers are watching closely.
Arab Exports in Trouble—Here’s What’s on the Line
Let’s break it down. ESCWA’s estimate shows over $22 billion worth of non-oil Arab exports are vulnerable to the new tariff regime. Here’s a quick look at what’s at stake:
| Country | Non-Oil Exports at Risk (USD) | Key Sectors Affected |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco | $6.2 billion | Automotive, textiles, citrus |
| Egypt | $5.8 billion | Chemicals, food products |
| Tunisia | $4.1 billion | Electrical components |
| Jordan | $2.7 billion | Pharmaceuticals, apparel |
That’s a lot of trade tied up in red tape and tariff schedules.
• The automotive and textile sectors are among Morocco’s top U.S. export earners
• Disruption in these areas could lead to job losses and slower industrial growth
• For countries like Tunisia, even a small shift in export numbers can trigger major budgetary gaps
Meanwhile, the U.S. has granted a 90-day delay on tariffs for most countries—except China. It buys time, but not much.
Europe Still Dominates Morocco’s Export Game
One of the reasons Morocco is vulnerable? It’s already deeply tied to Europe. About 68% of its total exports head toward the EU. That’s both a strength and a weakness.
If the EU economy sneezes, Morocco catches a cold.
But it’s not just dependency. There’s also a lack of market diversification. Relying so heavily on Europe and, increasingly, the U.S., means any geopolitical tension or policy pivot can hit hard.
In that sense, the U.S. tariffs are a wake-up call.
More like a jolt, really.
Silver Lining or Smoke Screen? Global Trade Is Shifting
There’s chatter in trade circles that Morocco could, ironically, benefit as global supply chains realign away from China and India. In theory, companies could move operations to North Africa to dodge tariffs and secure cheaper logistics to Europe and the Americas.
But theory and practice are two different beasts.
Experts say short-term gains are unlikely. That’s partly because the 90-day grace period the U.S. set means businesses will take a wait-and-see approach. Also, Morocco still needs to up its game when it comes to infrastructure and business-friendly policy reform.
UN Pushes for a United Arab Response
ESCWA isn’t just pointing fingers. It’s offering solutions, too.
Dr. Rola Dashti, the commission’s executive secretary, believes these tariffs could light a fire under the region’s sluggish efforts at economic integration. Her office is urging Arab nations to do two things fast:
• Reactivate trade pacts like the Greater Arab Free Trade Area and the Agadir Agreement
• Invest heavily in transport links, customs coordination, and economic regulation reform
“It’s not just about avoiding a crisis,” Dashti said. “It’s about using this moment to build resilience that can stand up to future global shocks.”
Whether that’s politically feasible remains to be seen. Fractures in regional politics have long stymied real economic coordination.
What’s Next for Morocco?
Morocco has weathered shocks before. From the pandemic to price spikes in basic goods, it’s kept its economic engine running. But this time, the storm is coming from a different direction: Washington.
Government officials haven’t released a detailed plan yet. But analysts say a proactive approach is key—diversifying trade partners, investing in domestic industries, and pushing for regional trade wins.
And maybe, just maybe, this is the moment Morocco finally steps out of Europe’s shadow and plays a bigger role in global trade.
