The findings arrive at a moment of intense regional pressure, with US Iran talks stalled, military activity increasing in the Gulf, and Israel weighing how closely to align with American action.
Israelis divided on when and whether to strike Iran
A fresh survey released by the Israel Democracy Institute shows no clear public consensus on Israeli military involvement against Iran.
According to the poll, 50 percent of Israelis say Israel should act only if Iran attacks first, while 44 percent support joining the United States in a strike from the outset. The remaining respondents were undecided.
The data highlights how close the split is, even as security concerns dominate public life.
Among Jewish respondents, support for immediate participation rises slightly. Forty eight percent favor early involvement, compared with 46 percent who prefer waiting for an Iranian strike.
Arab citizens show a very different view. Sixty seven percent say Israel should only act if Iran attacks first, signaling far stronger caution toward escalation.
The survey was conducted between January 25 and January 29 among 755 Jewish and Arab adults, forming a representative sample of Israeli society.
Political identity shapes views on military action
Political alignment emerged as one of the strongest predictors of opinion.
On the Jewish left, 63 percent oppose joining a strike unless Iran attacks first. Among centrists, that figure stands at 55 percent.
On the right, the picture flips. Fifty five percent of right wing respondents support Israeli involvement from the beginning, reflecting a more aggressive stance toward Iran and stronger alignment with US military policy.
These divides suggest that any Israeli decision to join a US strike would carry heavy domestic political consequences, especially in a polarized climate.
Security analysts note that Iran remains one of the few issues that can still fracture Israeli public opinion across nearly every social line.
Public concern over plan to end US military aid
The survey also tested reactions to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent statement that Israel intends to gradually phase out US military aid over the next decade.
Netanyahu framed the goal as national independence, saying Israel should rely on its own strength rather than foreign assistance.
The public response was cautious at best.
Forty nine percent of Israelis believe ending US aid would harm national security, while 39.5 percent say it would not.
Concern cuts across much of society. Majorities of both Jewish and Arab respondents view the move as risky.
Only one group breaks from that pattern. Among respondents who identify as fully right wing, just 30 percent believe ending American aid would damage security, reflecting stronger confidence in Israel’s military self reliance.
The issue comes as Israel receives billions of dollars annually in US defense assistance, including funding for missile defense systems and joint weapons development.
Mixed support for Trump’s Board of Peace
The poll also addressed Israel’s role in a new US led initiative called the Board of Peace, announced by US President Donald Trump.
The body includes representatives from Turkey and Qatar, two countries Israel has frequently criticized over their regional roles.
Despite that, 51 percent of Israelis support Netanyahu joining the Board, while 30 percent oppose participation. Nearly one in five respondents said they were unsure.
Jewish respondents were more supportive, with a clear majority backing Israeli involvement. Arab respondents were split, with 31 percent in favor and 38 percent opposed, and a high level of uncertainty.
When asked whether the Board of Peace could help rebuild Gaza while still protecting Israel’s security, views diverged again.
Fifty four percent of Jews said it could not help, while 42 percent of Arabs said it could, underscoring deep differences in how each community views regional diplomacy.
Optimism rises but Jewish Arab gaps widen
Despite disagreements on security and diplomacy, the survey recorded a modest rise in optimism about Israel’s future.
Optimism about national security rose by seven percentage points to 45 percent, the largest monthly increase tracked.
Views of the economy also improved. Thirty five percent of Israelis now say they are optimistic, the highest level since the institute began measuring economic confidence.
Optimism about democratic rule reached 44 percent, while social cohesion climbed to 24 percent.
Yet these gains mask stark gaps.
On national security alone, 52 percent of Jews expressed optimism, compared with just 11 percent of Arab respondents, the widest gap across all categories.
Political alignment again played a role. Right wing Jewish respondents were far more optimistic than those on the left or center.
Israelis split over democracy warning by Aharon Barak
The survey also asked about a recent warning from former Supreme Court president Aharon Barak, who said Israel is no longer a liberal democracy.
The country is almost evenly divided.
Forty nine point five percent agree with Barak, while 45 percent disagree.
Among Jews, opinion tilts slightly against the claim. Forty nine percent disagree, while 47 percent agree.
Among Arab citizens, the view is far clearer. Sixty percent agree with Barak, and only 25 percent disagree.
Left and center voters overwhelmingly support Barak’s warning, while strong opposition is concentrated almost entirely on the right.
Together, the findings paint a picture of a society pulled in opposing directions by war fears, political identity, and competing visions of Israel’s future.
As pressure mounts over Iran and the US role in the region, Israel’s leaders face not only strategic choices abroad, but a deeply divided public at home. What happens next may depend as much on internal trust as on external threats. Readers are invited to share their views and join the conversation on where Israel should draw its red lines.
