Blockstream CEO Adam Back, one of the early pioneers of cryptocurrency and a vocal advocate of Bitcoin, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high of over $100,000 before the next halving event in April 2024. He is so confident in his forecast that he has agreed to a bet of one million satoshis (about $290 at current prices) with a Twitter user who thinks otherwise.
The bet was initiated by @Vikingobbitcoin, who challenged Back to wager that Bitcoin would not hit $100,000 by March 31, 2024, a month before the expected halving date. Back accepted the bet, saying that he thinks Bitcoin will “probably” reach a new record high sooner than the halving.
The Halving Effect
The halving is a process that occurs every four years, or every 210,000 blocks, in the Bitcoin network. It reduces the reward for mining a new block by half, making the supply of new bitcoins more scarce. The halving is widely regarded as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, as it creates a supply shock that increases the demand and value of the cryptocurrency.
The next halving, which will be the fourth one in Bitcoin’s history, is estimated to happen on April 26, 2024, according to Bitcoinblockhalf.com. At that point, the block reward will drop from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins, and the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin will fall from 1.8% to 0.9%.
Back is not the only one who believes that the halving will boost Bitcoin’s price to unprecedented levels. Many analysts and investors have expressed similar views, citing historical patterns and fundamental factors. For instance, Balaji Srinivasan, the former CTO of Coinbase, made a $1 million bet in March that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2023. Back himself has been even more optimistic, saying in February that Bitcoin could reach $10 million by the sixth halving in 2032.
A Small Bet for a Big Vision
However, the bet that Back made with @Vikingobbitcoin is not as impressive as it sounds. One million satoshis, or 0.01 bitcoins, is a relatively small amount for someone who is estimated to have a net worth of between $50 and $300 million. A satoshi, named after the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is the smallest unit of Bitcoin, and there are 100 million satoshis in one bitcoin.
Some Twitter users mocked Back for his low-stakes bet, saying that he should have put more money on the line if he was truly confident in his prediction. Others pointed out that the bet was not legally binding, and that either party could easily back out or delete their tweets.
Nevertheless, the bet reflects a growing sentiment of optimism and enthusiasm among the Bitcoin community, as the cryptocurrency continues to show resilience and innovation amid the challenges and opportunities of the digital age.
