Cairo cites Gaza, Rafah crossing disputes and security fears as unresolved barriers despite quiet diplomatic interest from Israel and the US
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has no intention of meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under current circumstances, according to an Egyptian official familiar with internal deliberations, underscoring how sharply relations have cooled amid the ongoing war in Gaza.
The official said a summit is effectively off the table unless Israel alters its conduct on several core issues, dampening hopes in Jerusalem and Washington for a high-level reset between two countries bound by a decades-old peace treaty.
Gaza war fallout reshapes Cairo’s calculations
For Egypt, the war that erupted after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel has redrawn diplomatic red lines that were once flexible. Cairo has repeatedly warned Israel against any military moves that would push Palestinians southward toward the Egyptian border, seeing such scenarios as an existential security threat rather than a humanitarian footnote.
Egyptian officials fear that Israel has not fully abandoned plans that could funnel displaced Gazans toward Sinai, a region Cairo has spent years trying to stabilize after an Islamist insurgency. Even hints of such outcomes trigger alarm.
The concern has not faded with time. Instead, it has hardened.
According to the official, Israel’s focus on post-war reconstruction projects in Rafah, the southern Gaza city abutting Egypt, has only deepened suspicions in Cairo. Egyptian policymakers worry that rebuilding efforts concentrated there could entrench population shifts that Egypt has consistently rejected.
One sentence says it plainly: Egypt sees population displacement from Gaza as a nonstarter.
Rafah Crossing becomes a political flashpoint
Tensions have also intensified around the Rafah Crossing, the sole entry point to Gaza not controlled by Israel. While the crossing has reopened intermittently, Israel has limited its use largely to allow Palestinians to exit the enclave, a policy Cairo views with deep skepticism.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said last week that Cairo sees these restrictions as an effort to thin Gaza’s population. That accusation cuts to the core of Egypt’s strategic anxiety.
Cairo has publicly and privately insisted it will not permit any scenario that results in a permanent influx of Gazans into Egyptian territory. Officials fear such movement would destabilize Sinai and alter the Palestinian issue in ways Egypt believes would be irreversible.
From Egypt’s perspective, control of Rafah is not merely logistical. It is political, symbolic, and tied to national sovereignty.
And this is where patience wears thin.
A peace treaty under strain, not collapse
Despite the rising friction, both sides stop short of questioning the 1979 peace treaty that reshaped the Middle East. Security coordination continues, particularly around counterterrorism in Sinai and border management. Intelligence channels remain open.
But the tone has changed.
An Egyptian official described the relationship as functional rather than warm, with dialogue driven more by necessity than trust. High-level political gestures, such as a presidential summit, require a baseline of mutual confidence that Cairo says is currently missing.
Washington has quietly encouraged renewed engagement between Sissi and Netanyahu, seeing Egypt as a crucial mediator in ceasefire talks and hostage negotiations. Jerusalem, too, has expressed interest in a meeting, hoping to stabilize ties with one of its most important Arab partners.
For now, Cairo is unmoved.
Diplomacy, an Egyptian official said, cannot be symbolic when substance is absent.
Energy dispute adds to diplomatic irritation
Strains worsened further in October after Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen withdrew from a planned signing ceremony for a natural gas agreement with Egypt. The deal, considered commercially significant and politically sensitive, was expected to deepen energy cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean.
Cohen publicly argued that the terms were unfair to Israel, a move that reportedly angered both Cairo and Washington.
For Egypt, the cancellation was more than a contractual dispute. It was seen as a breach of diplomatic etiquette and a signal that Israel was willing to upend understandings without prior coordination.
Energy cooperation has long been a pillar of Israel-Egypt relations, tying Israeli gas fields to Egyptian liquefaction plants and export routes. Disruptions in this area ripple outward, affecting regional markets and US-backed energy strategies.
One Egyptian official summed it up bluntly: trust is harder to rebuild than pipelines.
History weighs heavily on present choices
Sissi and Netanyahu have met before, most notably on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in 2017. That encounter, captured in an image released by the Egyptian presidency, symbolized a period of pragmatic engagement driven by shared security concerns.
Those days feel distant now.
Egypt’s leadership faces domestic pressure to appear firm on Gaza, where public sympathy for Palestinians runs deep. Any perception of leniency toward Israel carries political risks at home, especially during a prolonged and bloody conflict.
At the same time, Cairo remains acutely aware of its role as a regional power broker. Egypt has mediated ceasefires, facilitated aid deliveries, and coordinated hostage talks. That leverage, officials argue, depends on maintaining clear boundaries.
A meeting without concessions could weaken Egypt’s position rather than strengthen it.
Signals to Washington and the region
Egypt’s stance sends a message beyond Israel. It also speaks to Washington, which has leaned heavily on Cairo to help manage the Gaza crisis while maintaining regional stability.
By holding back on a presidential meeting, Egypt is signaling that mediation does not equal endorsement. Cairo wants its concerns acknowledged, not sidelined.
The message is also regional. Other Arab governments are watching how Egypt navigates its ties with Israel during the war. Cairo’s refusal to rush into a summit reinforces its self-image as a guardian of Arab red lines, even while maintaining diplomatic channels.
There is, however, no illusion of permanence.
Egyptian officials stress that doors are not permanently closed. Changes in Israeli policy, particularly regarding Gaza’s southern border and civilian movement, could reopen possibilities for engagement at the highest level.
But until then, symbolism will wait.
A cold pause with strategic consequences
The absence of a Sissi-Netanyahu meeting does not mean silence. Diplomats, intelligence officials, and military officers remain in contact. Yet the lack of top-level engagement reflects how fragile the relationship has become under the weight of war, displacement fears, and political mistrust.
In Cairo’s view, summits are rewards, not starting points.
Without visible shifts on Gaza, Rafah, and broader security conduct, Egypt appears content to let the pause linger, even as allies quietly nudge from the sidelines.
