Global business leaders have converged in Riyadh for the 2024 Future Investment Initiative (FII), a glittering investor forum dubbed “Davos in the Desert.” This year, over 7,000 delegates are expected, including notable figures like TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew and top executives from Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.
Conflict in the Middle East casts a shadow over the event, influencing panel discussions and side meetings. Just last year, the FII took place shortly after Hamas’s surprise attack on southern Israel, sparking the war in Gaza. Now, a year later, fears have materialized with Israel’s ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and retaliatory strikes involving Iran.
Robert Mogielnicki from the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington notes, “Attendees will likely reflect on the persistent Israel-Gaza conflict, the new invasion in Lebanon, and worries about broader regional escalations.” Despite the turmoil, Saudi Arabia has managed to shield itself from the worst impacts so far, though the situation remains tense.
Vision 2030 Under Scrutiny
This year’s FII isn’t just about navigating regional conflict; it’s also a platform for Saudi officials to showcase progress on Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to diversify the economy beyond oil. However, recent developments indicate some adjustments to the original targets.
NEOM, the ambitious megacity project, has seen its size and population goals scaled back. The city, envisioned to be a futuristic hub with features like a ski resort and twin skyscrapers stretching 170 kilometers, has faced skepticism, especially from Western media.
Jim Krane from Rice University’s Baker Institute explains, “The early opening of NEOM’s Sindalah island is likely a strategic move to silence doubters, demonstrating Saudi Arabia’s commitment to advancing despite criticism.”
Key Adjustments to Vision 2030:
- Scaling back NEOM’s size and population targets
- Accelerating certain projects while delaying others
- Increased focus on sustainable tourism and luxury developments
Economic Challenges Loom
Saudi Arabia’s economic landscape is facing headwinds, partly due to regional instability. The kingdom has implemented oil cuts since 2022 to drive up prices, currently producing around nine million barrels per day, below its 12 million bpd capacity.
Last month, the finance ministry projected a budget deficit of 2.3% of GDP for 2025, attributing it to increased government spending and declining oil revenues. This fiscal pressure is compounded by commitments to high-profile events like Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup, for which Saudi Arabia is the sole bidder.
| Fiscal Indicators | 2023 | 2024 (Projected) | 2025 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Production (bpd) | 9,000 | 9,200 | 9,000 |
| Budget Deficit (%) | – | – | 2.3 |
| Major Investments | Expo 2030, World Cup 2034 | Continued | Increased |
The pressure to balance economic diversification with current fiscal constraints is evident. Mohammed al-Jadaan, Saudi Finance Minister, stated in May that the ongoing conflicts, including the war in Gaza, have led officials to reprioritize elements of Vision 2030.
In a December briefing, Jadaan mentioned that while some major projects have their timelines extended beyond 2030, others are being fast-tracked to meet urgent needs. This strategic flexibility reflects Saudi Arabia’s attempt to adapt to both internal and external economic pressures.
The Show Must Go On
Despite the challenges, FII Institute CEO Richard Attias remains optimistic about the event’s objectives. Speaking at a press conference in Riyadh, Attias emphasized that the forum is not intended to delve into political issues but rather to focus on significant investments that can shape a better future.
“We are an independent platform and we don’t want to be, forgive me for the word, polluted by any political events,” Attias declared. With over 35 years of experience curating events, he remains steadfast: “The show must go on.”
His remarks underscore the resilience of Saudi Arabia’s economic ambitions, even as regional conflicts test the kingdom’s ability to maintain stability and attract global investment. The interplay between geopolitical tensions and economic initiatives will likely continue to define the atmosphere at FII 2024, making it a crucial event for stakeholders watching the Middle East’s evolving dynamics.
