Saudi Arabia’s shift on US-Iran diplomacy reveals more about its own transformation than Tehran’s nuclear file.
Just ten years ago, Saudi Arabia slammed a US-led nuclear agreement with Iran. Now it’s shaking hands in Tehran, hoping talks will cool tensions. What gives?
A lot has changed in a decade—both in the region and in Riyadh. And the Saudis’ new tone toward negotiations with Iran isn’t about forgetting the past. It’s about securing their future.
From Skepticism to Strategic Endorsement
Back in 2015, Saudi Arabia was anything but pleased when then-US President Barack Obama pushed through a nuclear deal with Iran. Officials in Riyadh believed it empowered their arch-rival without addressing Iran’s regional interference or missile program.
Fast forward to April 2025. A visibly different tone.
Instead of fiery criticism, Saudi officials are offering cautious support as Trump—now back in office—takes another shot at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
This time, the Saudi Foreign Ministry welcomed the diplomacy. The statement used hopeful language, calling the Oman-mediated negotiations a “positive development for regional and global peace.”
One key reason? Fear of fallout from an all-out regional conflict.
From Proxy Wars to Peace Talks
The sight of Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman shaking hands in Tehran would’ve been unthinkable a few years ago. And yet, there he was—personally delivering a message from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Iran’s top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Not long ago, MBS compared Khamenei to Hitler. That wasn’t just rhetoric—it reflected deep mistrust.
But today, there’s a recognition that endless proxy wars are bad for business.
The reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran that began in 2023 has slowly built trust. And now, Riyadh’s priority is shielding its Vision 2030 economic reform plan from missile strikes and political instability.
Vision 2030: The Hidden Driver Behind the Shift
At the heart of Saudi Arabia’s new posture is a simple truth: the country wants to change, fast.
Vision 2030 is Crown Prince Mohammed’s grand plan to reduce the kingdom’s reliance on oil. To pull it off, he needs billions in investment and a surge in tourism and tech.
War doesn’t fit into that vision.
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Skyscrapers and tourism zones can’t coexist with missile sirens and drone attacks.
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Global investors won’t pour money into a region teetering on the edge of conflict.
One Riyadh-based analyst summed it up: “If missiles fly again, the reform plan dies.”
Obama vs. Trump: Same Deal, Different Risks
Here’s the twist. The deal Trump is pursuing reportedly resembles Obama’s in many ways. Iran would limit enrichment activities, avoid weaponization, but keep its infrastructure.
That’s the kind of arrangement Saudi leaders hated a decade ago.
Kristin Smith Diwan of the Arab Gulf States Institute put it this way: “Under Obama, the Gulf States feared being sidelined. Under Trump, they fear being targeted.”
It’s a subtle, but important difference. Under Obama, they feared a cold shoulder. Under Trump, they fear an explosion.
Two rounds of US-Iran talks have wrapped so far. Trump hasn’t laid out clear terms—he just keeps repeating that Iran will never get the bomb. Meanwhile, Iranian officials insist they won’t dismantle core nuclear assets.
A New Middle East Mood
Arab capitals aren’t holding their breath for a sweeping peace deal. But there’s a growing appetite for managing tensions rather than stoking them.
From Egypt to Bahrain, countries are backing talks over threats.
Even Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, took to social media to say the quiet part out loud: “These talks are gaining momentum, and now, even the unlikely is possible.”
It’s a rare moment of regional alignment—even if fragile.
The timing matters too. Across the Middle East, tempers are fraying. US air strikes continue in Yemen against Houthi rebels. Israel hasn’t let up on Gaza. In March, Trump casually warned he’d bomb Iran if negotiations failed.
In such a tense environment, the mere act of talking is a relief.
Table: Then and Now – Saudi Stance on Iran Nuclear Deals
| Year | US President | Saudi Arabia’s Reaction | Iran Deal Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Barack Obama | Strong opposition | Deal signed |
| 2018 | Donald Trump | Support withdrawal | Deal scrapped |
| 2025 | Donald Trump | Supports new talks | Deal under negotiation |
And while the kingdom hasn’t forgotten old grievances, it’s clear the calculus has changed.
The Bigger Picture
This isn’t about newfound love between Riyadh and Tehran. It’s not even about Trump or Obama.
For Saudi Arabia, the path forward is about keeping the skies quiet, investors interested, and plans on track.
They’ve done the math. And right now, peace—even if temporary—is worth more than pride.
