As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Saudi Arabia finds itself balancing warm relations with potential uncertainties tied to a Trump presidency. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) understands both the opportunities and the challenges that may arise should Donald Trump secure another term.
Warm Relations with Trump: A Double-Edged Sword
Saudi Arabia has historically enjoyed a robust relationship with the Trump administration. Trump’s first visit to Riyadh in 2017 set the tone for a period of close cooperation, highlighted by grand displays of hospitality and significant arms deals. However, MBS is acutely aware that this warmth comes with inherent risks.
Dina Esfandiary of the International Crisis Group notes, “Broadly, the Saudis are keener for a Trump victory. On the surface, he will be more supportive and less critical of them.” This support is beneficial, especially in navigating regional complexities and economic agreements.
Potential Risks of a Trump Presidency
Despite the apparent benefits, MBS recognizes the unpredictability that Trump brings to the table. The potential for sudden policy shifts could undermine Saudi Arabia’s strategic goals, particularly in relation to the Middle East peace process.
Key Concerns Include:
- Unpredictable Foreign Policy: Trump’s decisions can be erratic, potentially destabilizing ongoing negotiations.
- Human Rights Scrutiny: Increased focus on human rights issues could strain diplomatic relations.
- Economic Implications: Shifts in U.S. economic policies might affect Saudi investments and oil markets.
These risks necessitate a cautious approach from Saudi leadership, ensuring that their long-term agenda remains on track despite potential administrative changes.
Navigating Relations with the Biden-Harris Administration
With the Biden administration seeking to deepen ties through significant agreements, Saudi Arabia finds itself in a unique position. The ongoing negotiations for a “mega-deal” to recognize Israel have been a focal point, albeit currently stalled due to regional conflicts like the Gaza war.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst, explains, “It’s a rare moment when they really are OK with either party winning.” This flexibility stems from the Saudis’ ability to maintain strong relationships with both Trump and the Biden-Harris administration, ensuring continuity regardless of the election outcome.
Strategic Moves Amid Election Uncertainty
In response to the potential election results, Saudi Arabia is taking strategic steps to safeguard its interests. This includes reinforcing diplomatic channels with both Republican and Democratic leaders to mitigate any adverse impacts from a Trump presidency.
Strategic Initiatives:
- Enhanced Diplomatic Engagement: Strengthening ties with key U.S. officials across the political spectrum.
- Diversifying Alliances: Building relationships beyond the U.S. to reduce dependence on a single global partner.
- Economic Diversification: Investing in non-oil sectors to stabilize the economy against geopolitical shifts.
By proactively addressing these areas, Saudi Arabia aims to maintain its influence and secure its strategic objectives irrespective of the U.S. political landscape.
The Impact of Regional Dynamics
The broader Middle Eastern context plays a significant role in shaping Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy strategies. Ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and tensions with Iran, further complicate the relationship with the U.S.
Rising energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have bolstered Saudi Arabia’s position as a leading oil exporter. This economic leverage provides additional bargaining power in negotiations with both Trump and Biden administrations.
Looking Ahead: A Balanced Approach
As the election draws near, Saudi Arabia’s approach remains one of cautious optimism. While the prospect of another Trump presidency presents certain advantages, the associated risks require a balanced and strategic response to ensure national interests are upheld.