Ceasefire halts Iran-Israel fighting as Trump steps in — but tensions simmer beneath the surface
After 12 days of rockets, strikes, and near-constant alerts, the skies over Tehran and Tel Aviv are quieter — but no one’s breathing easy just yet. A ceasefire, pushed through by former U.S. President Donald Trump, is technically holding. Technically. Violations were already reported within hours. Airports reopened. Stocks bounced. Oil dipped. And both sides claimed victory — whatever that means anymore.
Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, went so far as to call it a “great victory,” while Israel’s defense chief said the army was now at “full operational status.” That may be true. But no one’s packing away the gas masks.
Trump’s Return to the Global Stage, One War at a Time
Trump didn’t just weigh in from the sidelines. He muscled his way to the center.
On Monday night, he took to Truth Social, blasting Israel for striking too deep into Iranian territory, and then, in the same breath, demanding Iran stop playing “dangerous games.” His team, working through Gulf intermediaries, reportedly coordinated behind closed doors with both nations’ intelligence channels.
Two things stood out:
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He called for “no regime change” in Iran — surprising even some of his own allies.
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He scolded Israel in unusually sharp terms for a U.S. partner.
Behind closed doors, one senior European diplomat summed it up bluntly: “Trump wanted the win. And both sides wanted the exit.”
That may be true. But even the way the fighting paused tells a story.
Airports Reopen, but War Fatigue Is Everywhere
Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv flickered back to life Tuesday evening, with commercial flights landing for the first time in nearly two weeks. In Iran, Nour News, tied to the Revolutionary Guard, confirmed that airspace was reopened after midnight.
People exhaled — cautiously. One Israeli mother tweeted a photo of her toddler sleeping without sirens. In Tehran, fruit vendors stayed open after sunset, the first night in days without a curfew.
But soldiers haven’t gone home.
Not by a long shot.
A few things shifted immediately:
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Tel Aviv stocks soared 3.8% at open, before trimming gains by close.
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Brent crude slid back under $84, erasing nearly $7 in war-risk premium.
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Currency markets treated the ceasefire as fragile. The Israeli shekel strengthened slightly; Iran’s rial barely moved.
Markets, like citizens, don’t trust the quiet.
Iran’s Messaging: Victory Abroad, Protest at Home
President Pezeshkian didn’t wait long. Hours after the truce was announced, he stood at a podium in Mashhad and declared “the defeat of Zionism,” even as anti-government chants rang out nearby. Some of it was the usual rhetoric. But beneath the surface, things were complicated.
In Tehran’s working-class districts, protests weren’t just about Israel. They were about bread prices, power cuts, and the cost of war. Authorities allowed more leeway than usual — likely a sign they don’t want new martyrs.
A one-sentence comment from a student near Azadi Square said a lot.
A general from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps told anchorwomen that the attack on Haifa’s naval base had “changed the balance.” No evidence was offered. But that wasn’t the point.
Messaging — not facts — shaped the post-war narrative.
Ceasefire Deal: Thin Ice and Unfinished Business
The ceasefire, brokered through Omani and Qatari intermediaries with Trump’s backing, is more like a handshake than a signed deal. No one’s holding breath for a formal treaty. But there’s a rough outline on the table.
Here’s what’s been quietly understood, according to U.S. officials and European sources:
| Element | Details Reported |
|---|---|
| Airspace reopening | Iran reopened airspace; Israel fully operational |
| Prisoner swap | Rumors only, not confirmed |
| No regime change policy | Trump insisted privately to allies that U.S. will not push for Iran regime change |
| No strikes on nuclear sites | Both sides agreed not to target nuclear facilities going forward |
| Talks resume? | Iran said yes. U.S. said “maybe.” Israel hasn’t commented officially |
Unofficial, fragile, and driven by fatigue rather than resolution. That’s the ceasefire in a nutshell.
Israel’s Calculus: Tactically Satisfied, Strategically Stuck
For Israel, the war’s outcome is… ambiguous. Some key sites in Iran were hit. But the cost was high — domestically and diplomatically.
Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir appeared alongside defense officials Tuesday, claiming readiness and resilience. But underneath the rhetoric, Israeli newspapers have started asking harder questions: What was actually achieved? Was deterrence restored? Did Hezbollah gain from the distraction?
One senior IDF officer, speaking anonymously, said this wasn’t like past operations.
“We weren’t aiming for a knockout. Just to survive the round.”
That alone signals a shift. The fight was never about Gaza or Lebanon this time. It was about missiles, nuclear fears, and the reality that two heavily armed nations just flirted with catastrophe.
And the world — including Wall Street — noticed.
What Comes Next? Negotiations, But No Guarantees
There’s a lot hanging in the balance now. A return to U.S.-Iran nuclear talks has been floated — again. But trust is thin, and memories are fresh. Some diplomats say Oman has already hosted preliminary backchannel meetings, likely with U.S. blessing.
Iran is using its public statements to demand sanctions relief. Israel, meanwhile, hasn’t said much about diplomacy at all.
And then there’s Trump — still shaping foreign policy, even without formal office. He may be running again. And he may very well run on this.
At a Tuesday night fundraiser in Florida, he told donors, “I stopped a war they couldn’t handle.”
But no one’s celebrating. Not in Tehran. Not in Tel Aviv. And definitely not in the bunkers of northern Israel or the hospitals of Isfahan.
