The Jordanian government’s recent decision to ban the Muslim Brotherhood has raised alarm bells, marking a pivotal moment for the nation’s political landscape. The move could either usher in a period of increased repression or spark a new era of political renewal—depending on how it is handled.
A New Phase in Jordan’s Political Landscape
In late April 2025, Jordan shocked many by officially banning the Muslim Brotherhood, a move that escalates the already strained relationship between the Islamist movement and the monarchy. For years, the Brotherhood had existed in a legal gray area, with its political arm, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), actively participating in elections and parliamentary affairs. But the recent legal ruling, which declared the group’s existence unlawful, has put the nation at a crossroads.
Despite the court’s ruling, the Brotherhood hasn’t disappeared. Instead, it has opted to operate behind the scenes. The IAF still holds legal parliamentary status and insists it will continue to engage in Jordan’s political and public spheres. However, the recent accusations against the group—ranging from plotting internal attacks to smuggling arms to Palestinian territories—have clearly shifted the government’s stance.
The fears of the Jordanian state are not unfounded. The Brotherhood’s growing connections to Hamas and Iran, combined with internal unrest, have painted a picture of instability. For a nation already grappling with regional tensions and the complexities of the Israel-Gaza conflict, the ban could have major repercussions.
A Tension-Filled History: The Brotherhood and the Jordanian State
The rift between the Jordanian government and the Muslim Brotherhood has been decades in the making, with roots stretching back to the Arab Spring of 2011. However, it was the events of October 7, 2023, and the aftermath of Jordan’s involvement in repelling Iranian missile attacks on Israel that brought things to a head. As Jordan took a strong stance against Iran and assisted in international efforts to counteract missile strikes on Israel, the Brotherhood’s alliances with Hamas and Iran became an increasing concern.
These tensions have only deepened since the country’s parliamentary elections in 2024, where the IAF made significant electoral gains, largely in the face of an unpopular monarchy. The IAF’s successes at the ballot box highlighted the movement’s popularity and deepened the state’s anxieties. The combination of rising protests, unrest in the streets, and allegations of armed militias working in tandem with the Brotherhood has set the stage for this ban.
The Ban’s Consequences: A Double-Edged Sword?
The question that looms large is: what does this ban mean for Jordan’s future? While the government’s hardline stance is meant to quell potential instability, it may inadvertently increase the likelihood of internal unrest. The Muslim Brotherhood is not an insignificant political force in Jordan. Its historical roots in the country’s social fabric, alongside its connections to various regional players, cannot be easily erased.
On one hand, this crackdown might solidify the government’s grip on power by removing a significant political rival. The ban could force the Brotherhood further underground, limiting its ability to mobilize publicly. On the other hand, suppressing such a popular and entrenched movement could lead to a surge in underground resistance. History has shown that pushing such movements out of the public sphere often drives them into more covert and potentially violent tactics.
Growing Influence of Hamas and Iran in Jordan’s Backyard
As tensions escalate within Jordan’s borders, the state is increasingly concerned about the influence of Hamas and Iran on its domestic affairs. Both entities have long had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, with Hamas sharing its ideological foundations. Iran, for its part, has played a more indirect role by supporting groups in Jordan that may align with the Brotherhood’s broader regional objectives.
This relationship has raised alarms among the Jordanian leadership. The possibility of growing Hamas influence within the kingdom, coupled with Iran’s longstanding regional ambitions, presents a significant national security concern. The government’s fear is that the Brotherhood’s connections to these groups could destabilize the kingdom, potentially aligning it more closely with factions hostile to Jordan’s political and military allies.
The Role of the Islamic Action Front
The IAF’s political status remains intact, but its future in Jordan’s political scene is uncertain. The group has vowed to continue participating in Jordan’s political life, albeit under much more difficult conditions. While the state may have dealt a significant blow to the Brotherhood’s public face, the IAF’s role as a political force is not easily dismissed. In fact, the group has built a significant base of support, particularly among Jordan’s marginalized populations.
The question now is whether the IAF will be able to maintain its legitimacy as a political entity under the current climate. Will it be able to carry on in the shadows, pushing its agenda through backdoor channels and grassroots mobilization, or will the crackdown lead to its eventual collapse, creating a power vacuum that could embolden other extremist factions?
Here’s a look at potential outcomes in the short and long term for Jordan:
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Short-term Effects: The crackdown will likely lead to a decline in public demonstrations and protests, but underground activism may rise.
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Medium-term Effects: A further entrenchment of Jordan’s political factions could lead to internal rifts and escalating protests.
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Long-term Effects: The state may face increased regional isolation if the ban on the Brotherhood leads to further radicalization or unrest within Jordan.
A Critical Crossroads
Jordan is at a critical juncture. The government’s decision to ban the Muslim Brotherhood could either usher in an era of greater political control or lead the country toward increased internal conflict. For the moment, the Brotherhood’s political arm still holds sway, and it will be fascinating to see how this ongoing struggle plays out in the coming months.
The stakes are incredibly high—not just for Jordan, but for the broader Middle East. As the region continues to shift, the question of how Jordan balances its internal political struggles with external geopolitical pressures will have far-reaching consequences for both the monarchy’s future and regional stability.
