Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has expressed grave concerns over his safety due to his efforts to normalize relations with Israel. The Crown Prince has reportedly conveyed his fears to US lawmakers, drawing parallels to the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat following his peace deal with Israel. Despite the risks, MBS remains committed to pursuing a grand bargain with the US and Israel, which he believes is crucial for Saudi Arabia’s future. This development has significant implications for regional politics and the stability of the Middle East.
MBS’s decision to pursue normalization with Israel is seen as a high-stakes gamble. The Crown Prince has emphasized the importance of including a credible path to a Palestinian state in any deal, citing the deep concern of Saudis and the broader Middle Eastern populace over the Palestinian issue. This stance has put him at odds with the current Israeli government, which has been reluctant to make such concessions. The Crown Prince’s insistence on addressing Palestinian rights is not only a matter of regional justice but also a strategic move to secure his position as the custodian of Islam’s holy sites.
The potential for an assassination attempt looms large over MBS’s efforts. The Crown Prince has invoked the memory of Anwar Sadat, who was assassinated by Islamist extremists after signing a peace treaty with Israel. This historical parallel underscores the gravity of the threats MBS faces and the high personal stakes involved in his diplomatic endeavors. Despite these dangers, MBS appears determined to move forward, viewing the normalization deal as essential for Saudi Arabia’s long-term interests.
Regional and International Repercussions
The pursuit of a normalization deal with Israel by Saudi Arabia is likely to have far-reaching regional and international repercussions. For one, it could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. A successful deal would mark a historic shift in Saudi-Israeli relations, potentially paving the way for broader Arab-Israeli reconciliation. This could lead to increased economic cooperation and security collaboration between the two nations, enhancing regional stability.
However, the deal also carries significant risks. It could exacerbate tensions with Iran, which has long opposed any normalization of relations between Arab states and Israel. Additionally, the deal could provoke backlash from within Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations, where public opinion remains largely hostile towards Israel. The Crown Prince’s ability to navigate these complex dynamics will be crucial in determining the success of his diplomatic efforts.
The Path Forward
As MBS continues to push for a grand bargain with the US and Israel, the path forward remains fraught with challenges. The Crown Prince’s insistence on a credible path to a Palestinian state is a key sticking point in the negotiations. This demand reflects the broader Arab sentiment and the need to address the longstanding Palestinian issue to achieve lasting peace in the region2. The success of the deal will depend on the willingness of all parties to make necessary concessions and find common ground.
The US plays a critical role in facilitating these negotiations. Washington’s support for MBS’s efforts is essential, not only in terms of diplomatic backing but also in providing security guarantees to mitigate the risks faced by the Crown Prince. The Biden administration’s ability to balance its commitments to both Saudi Arabia and Israel will be a determining factor in the outcome of the deal. As the negotiations progress, the international community will be closely watching the developments, recognizing the potential for a historic breakthrough in Middle Eastern diplomacy.
