When the shockwaves of October 7 hit Israel, the world was stunned—and so was the country itself. Experts say this wasn’t just a failure in intelligence or defense but a deeper, more troubling gap in understanding the very minds behind the attacks. To peel back this layer, we sat down with Professor Arie Kruglanski, a leading voice in the psychology of terrorism and extremism, to get a clearer picture of what’s really at play here.
The Sun Tzu Lesson Israel Overlooked
“You gotta know your enemy,” the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu famously said. Sounds simple, right? But apparently, it’s a lesson that slipped through Israel’s fingers on that fateful day. Despite holding Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar behind bars for 20 years, Israeli officials somehow missed the full depth of his intentions. Sinwar wasn’t quiet about his aims—he laid them out loud and clear. Still, Israel didn’t seem to grasp what was brewing beneath the surface.
Professor Kruglanski points out that this isn’t just about spying or military might. It’s about really understanding the mindset that drives terrorism—the anger, the fear, the ideology. “Without this, strategies become reactionary,” he explains. “You’re just playing catch-up.”
Terrorism Psychology: What Drives the Enemy?
Kruglanski, whose research has spanned decades and continents, breaks down terrorism into a complex cocktail of identity, purpose, and belonging. “Many terrorists see themselves as part of a bigger story,” he says. It’s not random violence; it’s violence with meaning, rooted in personal and political narratives.
He adds that extremist groups often feed off a sense of grievance—whether it’s political oppression, social marginalization, or economic hardship. This sense of injustice turns into a powerful motivator. “You can’t just track their movements—you have to trace their stories.”
This explains why traditional intelligence methods sometimes fall flat. Satellite images or intercepted messages won’t reveal what’s really inside a terrorist’s head. You need to understand their “why” to predict their “what.”
The Risk of Ignoring the Human Factor
Here’s the kicker: Israel’s response, so far, has largely focused on military might and security measures. But ignoring the psychological and social roots is like trying to patch a leaking roof with duct tape. It might hold temporarily, but the underlying problem keeps growing.
Kruglanski warns that without grasping the emotional and ideological drivers, future attacks become a matter of when, not if. “You’re fighting shadows if you don’t get to the root.”
Interestingly, he points to the fact that many extremist leaders, including Sinwar, express intentions publicly—yet these are often dismissed as mere rhetoric or propaganda. “If you don’t listen closely, you’ll never get ahead.”
What Can Be Done? Lessons from the Experts
So what should Israel—and frankly, the world—do differently? Kruglanski suggests a multi-layered approach that combines hard intelligence with social science insights. It means investing in psychological research, engaging with communities, and trying to decode the narratives that feed extremism.
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Developing early-warning systems that detect shifts in extremist rhetoric before they turn violent.
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Building bridges with local populations to undermine recruitment efforts.
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Offering alternative narratives that challenge extremist ideologies on emotional and intellectual levels.
Kruglanski isn’t naive—he knows this isn’t easy. But he stresses that without it, the cycle of violence will likely continue.
The Bigger Picture: Understanding Yourself to Face the Enemy
In the end, Sun Tzu’s advice wasn’t just about knowing the enemy but also knowing yourself. The October 7 shock showed that Israel might still be figuring out its own vulnerabilities—how internal divisions, political debates, and societal challenges impact its ability to respond.
Kruglanski believes that self-awareness in national security is crucial. “If you don’t know your own strengths and weaknesses, how can you truly defend yourself?” he asks.
A Wake-Up Call for the Future
October 7 was a harsh lesson in humility. The takeaway? Knowing your enemy isn’t just about spies and satellites—it’s about empathy, insight, and deep human understanding. Without that, the risk is repeating mistakes and paying the price again.
It’s a brutal truth, but maybe one that can steer policy and security into a smarter, more nuanced direction. After all, wars are won or lost not just on the battlefield but in the minds of those who fight—and those who face them.
