A new study published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe has surveyed 32 experts from different disciplines and countries to explore the possible scenarios and challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The study aims to provide insights and recommendations for policymakers, health professionals, and the public to prepare for the future of the pandemic.
Four possible scenarios for the pandemic
The study identified four possible scenarios for the pandemic in Europe, based on the assumptions and uncertainties about the virus, the vaccines, the variants, and the public health measures. The scenarios are:
- Scenario A: Living with COVID-19. This is the most optimistic scenario, where the virus becomes endemic and causes mild or no symptoms in most people, thanks to effective vaccines and treatments. The public health measures are relaxed and life returns to normal, with occasional outbreaks that are quickly contained.
- Scenario B: COVID-19 waves. This is a more realistic scenario, where the virus continues to circulate and cause waves of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, depending on the seasonality, the variants, and the vaccination coverage. The public health measures are adjusted according to the epidemiological situation, and some restrictions remain in place. The social and economic impacts of the pandemic are significant and unequal.
- Scenario C: COVID-19 crisis. This is a pessimistic scenario, where the virus evolves rapidly and escapes the immunity conferred by the vaccines and previous infections. The vaccines become less effective and need to be updated frequently. The public health measures are insufficient or poorly implemented, leading to overwhelmed health systems and high mortality. The social and economic impacts of the pandemic are severe and widespread.
- Scenario D: COVID-19 under control. This is an idealistic scenario, where the virus is eliminated or suppressed to very low levels, thanks to a combination of effective vaccines, treatments, testing, tracing, isolation, and quarantine. The public health measures are lifted and life resumes as before the pandemic. The social and economic impacts of the pandemic are minimal and well-managed.
Key challenges and recommendations for the future
The study also highlighted some of the key challenges that Europe will face in the future of the pandemic, such as:
- The emergence and spread of new variants. The experts agreed that this is one of the most important factors that will shape the future of the pandemic. They recommended to enhance genomic surveillance, vaccine development, and international cooperation to monitor and respond to new variants.
- The vaccination strategies and coverage. The experts emphasized that vaccination is essential to control the pandemic, but also acknowledged that there are many challenges related to vaccine availability, distribution, acceptance, and effectiveness. They recommended to increase vaccine production and access, ensure equitable allocation, address vaccine hesitancy, and adapt vaccination strategies to new variants.
- The public health measures and compliance. The experts recognized that public health measures such as physical distancing, mask wearing, hygiene, testing, tracing, isolation, and quarantine are effective to reduce transmission and protect vulnerable groups. However, they also noted that these measures have negative impacts on mental health, education, economy, and human rights. They recommended to implement evidence-based measures that are proportional, transparent, consistent, flexible, and participatory.
- The social and economic inequalities. The experts pointed out that the pandemic has exposed and exacerbated existing inequalities in health outcomes, access to care, education opportunities, employment conditions, income levels, and social protection. They recommended to address these inequalities through universal health coverage, social protection schemes, fiscal policies, solidarity funds, and human rights frameworks.
The study concluded that there is no single or simple solution to end the pandemic in Europe. Rather, it requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach that involves multiple actors and sectors at local, national, regional, and global levels. The study also called for more interdisciplinary research that can inform decision-making and communication about the future of the pandemic.
