The long-frosty relationship between Egypt and Syria remains stuck in a holding pattern, despite high-level diplomatic appearances and regional pressure for reconciliation. With Syria’s political landscape in upheaval and Egypt maintaining a cautious stance, the prospect of genuine rapprochement looks increasingly distant.
Political Overhaul in Syria Sends Shockwaves
The sudden ousting of Bashar Al-Assad in December 2024 reshaped Syria’s leadership overnight. Ahmad Al-Sharaa, a figure once synonymous with armed opposition under his nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad Al-Julani, now stands as interim president. His rise to power — a scenario few anticipated — caught Egypt and other regional players off guard.
For Cairo, the transition raises uncomfortable questions. Assad, despite his controversies, was a known quantity. The new leadership, led by a former militant figure, represents uncertainty. Egyptian media wasted no time painting Al-Sharaa as a “terrorist,” dredging up his past with Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham — a move that underscores Cairo’s deep-rooted skepticism.
Egypt’s government, walking a tightrope between regional alliances and domestic security interests, has been slow to engage with Syria’s new rulers. So far, no senior Egyptian official has visited Damascus or publicly acknowledged the shift beyond cautious statements.
Diplomatic Hesitations Reflect Cairo’s Unease
Egypt’s diplomatic approach to Syria remains lukewarm, to say the least. Even as Al-Sharaa participated in an emergency Arab summit in Cairo this month, Egypt stopped short of extending formal recognition or any tangible support.
Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty’s comments calling Syria’s administration a “de facto authority” encapsulate Egypt’s current mindset — acknowledging reality without endorsing it. Behind closed doors, Cairo’s security apparatus reportedly views the new leadership as a wild card, fearing the rise of former insurgents could embolden extremists closer to home.
Meanwhile, Turkish diplomacy appears to be filling the void. A February meeting in Ankara — facilitated by Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan — brought Abdelatty and his Syrian counterpart together for what was described as a “side meeting.” While symbolic, the gathering yielded no breakthroughs.
Regional Balancing Act Limits Egypt’s Moves
Egypt’s approach to Syria isn’t just about bilateral ties. It’s entangled in a broader web of regional politics and alliances.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE, key Egyptian allies, have signaled a willingness to engage cautiously with Al-Sharaa’s transitional government.
- Turkey, once a staunch opponent of Assad, now finds itself positioning as a middleman between Syria and Arab states.
- Russia, hosting Assad after his flight from Damascus, remains an influential player behind the scenes.
Cairo faces pressure to align with Gulf partners’ pragmatic engagement — but doing so without jeopardizing its own security stance is a delicate balancing act.
What’s Next for Egypt-Syria Relations?
For now, Egypt appears content to keep Syria at arm’s length. The risk of moving too quickly outweighs any potential benefit. Al-Sharaa’s history and Egypt’s security-first mindset create a stubborn impasse.
Yet, the region’s shifting dynamics might force Cairo’s hand. If other Arab heavyweights fully embrace the new Syrian leadership, Egypt could find itself isolated. Alternatively, continued resistance could slow Syria’s reintegration into the Arab fold — a scenario that may suit Egypt’s interests, at least in the short term.
The standoff, rooted in history and hardened by new realities, shows no signs of thawing soon.
