Regional equity split deepens as investors weigh IMF optimism in Cairo against tariff fears in Riyadh and Dubai
Middle East stocks are heading in two very different directions. While Egypt’s main index surged to a new all-time high on Sunday, most Gulf markets slipped into the red, spooked by fresh threats of U.S. tariffs and lingering concerns over global economic growth.
The divergence highlights a growing investor preference for domestic reform-driven stories over externally exposed markets—especially as geopolitical friction and trade rhetoric intensify.
Egypt’s Bulls Charge Ahead
Cairo’s stock market is on a tear.
The EGX30 blue-chip index rose 0.7%, setting a new record and building on a strong year fueled by economic reforms, an IMF anchor, and renewed investor confidence.
Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk gave bulls more reason to cheer last week. Speaking to local media, he expressed confidence that Egypt would hit its economic reform targets and wrap up a delayed review of its $8 billion IMF programme by September or October.
That one statement sent signals investors had been waiting months for.
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On top of that, the IPO of Bonyan Development and Trade was oversubscribed more than 33 times, reinforcing the appetite for Egyptian equity stories even amid global headwinds.
IPO Euphoria and IMF Optimism Lure Investors
It’s not just optimism—it’s numbers.
The Bonyan IPO became one of the most talked-about listings in Cairo in years. Brokers reported strong retail and institutional demand, helping push valuations higher across the real estate and construction sectors.
And the market rally isn’t isolated. Here’s how key factors stack up:
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EGX30 Index: Up 0.7% on the day, setting a new record
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IMF Program: Review expected to conclude by Oct 2025
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Foreign Bond Plan: Egypt eyeing $4 billion in issuance next year (Bloomberg)
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Bonyan IPO: Covered 33x, strong institutional participation
“This feels like the 2016-2017 post-floatation momentum all over again,” said Nadine Hassan, head of equities at an investment firm in Cairo. “Only this time, it’s more IPO-driven and less dependent on hot money flows.”
Gulf Markets Feel the Heat
Things weren’t so rosy in the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index fell 0.4%, giving up early gains and notching its ninth straight day of losses—its longest losing streak in nearly two years.
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The weakness was broad-based. Saudi National Bank dipped 0.8%, while Saudi Arabian Mining Co. dropped 1.3% following news of its CFO’s retirement.
Retail giant Fawaz AbdulAziz Al Hokair & Co. was the day’s worst performer, plunging 10% despite announcing a 49.95% stake sale to Al Futtaim Retail in a deal worth over 2.5 billion riyals ($666 million).
Investors apparently wanted more.
Trump’s Tariff Talk Casts a Long Shadow
The real elephant in the trading room? Donald Trump’s trade threats.
The Financial Times reported Friday that the U.S. president is now pushing for a minimum tariff of 15% to 20% in any new deal with the European Union—with reciprocal tariffs over 10% even if talks succeed.
Markets are taking that seriously. And not in a good way.
Oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are sensitive to global consumption shifts, and higher trade barriers could pressure global growth and energy demand.
“This is classic Trump,” said a Dubai-based portfolio manager. “He talks tariffs, markets wobble, and everyone waits for the Fed to clean up the mess. Again.”
Qatar Quietly Climbs
In contrast to its Gulf peers, Qatar’s index rose 0.2%, nudging closer to a two-year high.
The rally was driven by Industries Qatar, which added 1.2% as global petrochemical prices showed modest improvement.
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Investors are also quietly positioning for Qatar’s earnings season, which kicks off next week, with expectations that the government’s fiscal surplus will support further infrastructure investments.
Table: Mideast Stock Snapshot — July 21, 2025
Here’s how key regional benchmarks moved on Sunday:
| Market/Index | Change (%) | Key Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Egypt (EGX30) | +0.7 | Record high; IMF optimism; Bonyan IPO oversubscribed 33x |
| Saudi Arabia (TASI) | -0.4 | 9th straight loss; sector-wide declines |
| Qatar (QE Index) | +0.2 | Near 2-year high; led by petrochemicals |
| Dubai (DFM General) | -0.2 | Modest dip; profit-taking after recent rally |
| Abu Dhabi (ADX) | -0.1 | Largely flat; real estate and energy mixed |
| Kuwait (Premier Market) | -0.3 | Decline led by banking sector |
Looking Ahead: Earnings vs. Macro Risks
The next few weeks will be telling.
Corporate earnings will begin trickling in across the region, with Egypt likely to post stronger Q2 results relative to its Gulf peers thanks to better local sentiment.
But macro risks are stacking up: U.S. tariff escalations, China’s slowing rebound, and ongoing uncertainty around oil demand.
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For now, Egypt has something the Gulf lacks—clear IMF-linked reform momentum and IPO excitement that feels real.
