A prominent Egyptian political analyst living in exile says Arab governments are masking true sentiments over the Israel-Iran conflict—and it’s not what most people think.
In a candid and emotionally charged interview with The Jerusalem Post, Egyptian analyst Dalia Ziada didn’t hold back. From exile in Washington, D.C., Ziada offered sharp criticism of Egypt’s current foreign policy, its covert embrace of Iran, and the influence of Gulf players like Qatar. Her words come at a time when Middle Eastern alliances are twisting into forms few could’ve imagined just a decade ago.
Ziada, once a vocal figure in Egypt’s civil society, was forced to flee her homeland after she openly condemned Hamas in the wake of the October 7 attacks. Since then, she says, threats to her life and actions by Egypt’s own authorities have made it impossible for her to return.
Egypt’s Cozying Up to Iran: A Historical Reversal
Egypt and Iran have never been natural allies. Historically, the two nations have stood on opposing sides of key regional disputes, especially following the 1979 Iranian revolution and Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel.
But now, that script seems flipped.
“Egypt has a history of standing against Iran,” Ziada said. “That’s why it’s so deeply ironic—painfully ironic—that Egypt is now aligning with its old adversary.”
One major reason behind this unexpected alliance? Economics, plain and simple.
Ziada argues that Egypt’s growing economic dependence on Gulf states—particularly Qatar—is pushing it into political corners that conflict with its traditional stances.
She doesn’t mince words: “Qatar has been kind of bribing Egypt for a while. You can see it very clearly. That started building gradually around 2022. But after October 7, things got even closer.”
A Broken Relationship with Israel, or Just on Pause?
Asked about Egypt’s stance on Israel, Ziada suggested that while the diplomatic cold shoulder might look serious, it’s likely a temporary reaction.
“I’m sure after everything, Egypt will try to restore relations,” she said, her tone flat but confident.
But she stressed that Israel is no longer in the same position it once was.
“Israel is now much stronger, a key player in the region. Egypt can’t treat it like it did in the ‘90s or 2000s. That era is gone,” she added.
She believes Israel’s evolving status—militarily, economically, and diplomatically—means it holds more cards than before, even in a region full of historical grudges.
Arabs Watching Quietly—and Smiling?
Ziada’s most startling claim, though, might be her take on how the Arab world really views the ongoing Israel-Iran tensions.
“Arabs are secretly rejoicing,” she said bluntly.
What she meant is layered: while official government statements paint a picture of solidarity and cautious diplomacy, many regional powers may be quietly celebrating as two regional giants—Israel and Iran—find themselves increasingly entangled.
One reason for this, she said, is a shared relief that attention has shifted. For countries dealing with domestic unrest, economic instability, or diplomatic heat, Israel-Iran headlines are, weirdly, a gift.
“You’d be surprised how many regional players are breathing a sigh of relief watching this unfold. It takes the spotlight off them,” Ziada added.
Qatar’s Influence: The Quiet Money Behind Policy Shifts
To Ziada, the linchpin of this complex Middle Eastern reshuffle is Qatar. Flush with cash and eager to expand its influence, Doha has found willing partners in countries like Egypt that are facing steep financial crises.
She pointed out how Qatari investments—particularly after 2022—have grown in influence across media, infrastructure, and political advisory circles within Egypt.
Here’s the twist:
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Egypt’s central bank received billions in deposits from Qatar.
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Doha-backed firms have been given massive contracts in Egypt’s energy and real estate sectors.
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Pro-Qatar media narratives now dominate some of Egypt’s biggest outlets.
All of this, Ziada claims, forms the backdrop to Egypt’s shift in tone—toward Iran, away from Israel.
“It’s not always about ideology. Often, it’s just about who’s paying your bills,” she said, dryly.
Personal Stakes and Exile
Ziada’s commentary isn’t just analytical—it’s personal.
Once an activist working to open political spaces in Egypt, she became a marked figure after criticizing Hamas last October. That stance made her enemies in unexpected places.
“I was condemned by not just radicals, but by the state itself,” she said.
Two separate attempts were made on her life, she claimed, and Egyptian authorities began quietly preparing charges to silence her.
Now based in Washington, she continues her work through the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
One paragraph stood out as raw and painfully honest: “I can’t go home. My mother’s getting older. My friends are scared to talk to me. And yet, I can’t stop talking.”
Where Do Things Go From Here?
Nobody knows for sure. But Ziada insists that current alignments are fluid, not fixed.
She predicts Egypt will eventually try to repair ties with Israel, especially as the regional economic map tightens and as Western partnerships become more selective.
She’s also certain that the growing tensions with Iran will force more Arab leaders to choose sides, publicly or privately.
Until then, she said, expect more double games.
“There’s what they say on camera. And then there’s what they say in private. Trust me, the gap is wide.”
