In an unexpected turn of events, Egyptian and Jordanian officials have reportedly urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and establish an exiled government. However, despite the pressure, Assad appears resolute in his determination to stay in Syria, according to a recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report.
A Call for Change Amidst Growing Chaos
The proposal, coming from two of Syria’s neighbouring countries, highlights the increasingly fragile situation within the Syrian regime. Despite the ongoing conflict, Assad has so far refused to entertain any notion of leaving his post. According to the Wall Street Journal, his wife and children recently travelled to Russia, while his sons-in-law have reportedly moved to the United Arab Emirates, sparking speculation about Assad’s next steps.
Meanwhile, Syrian cities continue to fall into the hands of opposition forces. The jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has successfully captured Aleppo and Hama, two major cities in the country. Reports suggest the group is now preparing to target the city of Homs, a strategic location that would sever the critical land route between Damascus and Syria’s coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus.
The situation in Syria has become even more dire in recent weeks. The ongoing battle for control over these cities underlines the military strain Assad is facing on multiple fronts, both from rebel factions and Kurdish forces, the latter of which have enjoyed support from the United States.
Assad’s Reluctance to Step Down
Despite pressure from its regional neighbours, Bashar al-Assad has shown little indication that he plans to leave Syria. In fact, his stance has been firm: he remains in the capital, Damascus, defying calls for his resignation and dismissal from power.
The suggestion that Assad form an exiled government indicates the extent of concern among Egypt and Jordan regarding the regime’s ability to maintain control. Both countries have been key players in Syria’s complex geopolitical landscape. As the war progresses, they are increasingly apprehensive about the implications for regional stability, especially with the growing influence of groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Still, Assad’s commitment to staying in Syria is rooted in more than just political stubbornness. His support base, largely comprising the Alawite minority from the coastal regions, remains fiercely loyal to his regime. These areas, particularly Latakia and Tartus, are crucial to Assad’s survival as they provide him with vital military and logistical support. If the rebels successfully capture Homs, these provinces would be completely cut off from the capital, plunging Syria into even greater disarray.
Rising Rebel and Kurdish Advances
While Assad focuses on holding on to his remaining strongholds, the balance of power continues to shift. In the east, Kurdish forces, supported by the United States, made a significant gain by capturing the city of Deir ez-Zor. The city, long an important stronghold for pro-Assad forces, represents a vital strategic victory for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The shifting dynamics are not confined to the eastern front. In the south, near the Israeli border, opposition forces have launched attacks on Daraa, once considered a regime-held territory. The continued advance of these groups has left Assad’s forces struggling to maintain their grip on key cities across the country.
These gains by rebel and Kurdish forces have left Assad with increasingly fewer options. His support, which once spanned the entire country, is now limited to the core areas of Damascus and the coastal provinces. His military forces are stretched thin, fighting on multiple fronts against an array of opposition groups, some with varying degrees of foreign support.
A Denial from Jordan
In an attempt to clarify its position, the Jordanian embassy in Washington has officially denied the Wall Street Journal’s report, which claimed that Jordanian officials had suggested Assad step down. The embassy called the report “baseless” and inaccurate, distancing itself from the alleged request.
Jordan, which has had its own concerns about the spillover of the Syrian conflict into its territory, has remained one of the key players in Syria’s complex geopolitical environment. However, this latest development places Jordan in a delicate position. While officially denying any such proposal, the kingdom is undoubtedly facing increasing pressure from its western allies, including the United States, to push for a resolution to the conflict that results in Assad’s ouster.
The International Impact of Assad’s Refusal
Assad’s decision to remain in power has significant implications for both Syria and the wider Middle East. The prolonged conflict, which has already caused immense human suffering, shows no signs of abating. The growing number of displaced people, the rise of jihadist groups, and the increasing influence of Kurdish militias are all factors that complicate any potential solution.
Internationally, the situation remains volatile. Western powers, particularly the United States and European Union, have repeatedly called for Assad’s resignation, aligning with the stance of his regional neighbours. But Russia, Assad’s most powerful ally, has made it clear that it will continue to back the Syrian regime, further complicating the prospects for a peaceful resolution.
For Egypt and Jordan, the push for Assad to step down reflects their deepening concerns about the regional consequences of the ongoing conflict. Both countries have been grappling with the challenges posed by the crisis in Syria, from the flood of refugees to the rise of extremist groups.
What Lies Ahead?
The question of what happens next for Syria remains as uncertain as ever. With Assad refusing to relinquish control, and with international and regional pressures mounting, the situation could reach a tipping point at any moment. Whether through military defeat or political negotiation, one thing is clear: Syria’s future remains in flux.
