Egypt shocked millions of citizens early Tuesday morning by raising fuel prices across the board, with some jumping as much as 30 percent. The government pointed directly at the war in Iran and the chaos it has unleashed on global energy markets. With inflation already climbing and everyday costs rising fast, this move puts fresh pressure on a nation still navigating a tough economic reform path.
What Changed at the Pump Overnight
Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced new increases in the prices of gasoline and diesel, raising them by LE 3 per liter, with the changes taking effect at 3:00 a.m. on Tuesday, March 10, 2026.Here is a breakdown of the new prices:
| Fuel Type | Old Price (EGP/Liter) | New Price (EGP/Liter) | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95-Octane Gasoline | 21.00 | 24.00 | ~14.3% |
| 92-Octane Gasoline | 19.25 | 22.25 | ~15.6% |
| 80-Octane Gasoline | 17.75 | 20.75 | ~16.9% |
| Diesel | 17.50 | 20.50 | ~17.1% |
| CNG (per cubic meter) | 10.00 | 13.00 | 30% |
The price of a 12.5 kg butane cylinder increased from EGP 225 to EGP 275. That is a roughly 22 percent jump, hitting households that depend on gas for cooking especially hard.Natural gas for vehicles saw the steepest increase of all, surging 30 percent in a single night.
Tuesday’s increase is the first since October last year, when Egypt raised fuel costs under its continuing reform programme with the International Monetary Fund for the second time that year.
Why the Government Says It Had No Choice
The Ministry of Petroleum described the situation as “extraordinary.” In a statement, the ministry said the adjustments were driven by “disruptions in supply chains, rising risk levels and higher maritime shipping and insurance costs”, which have pushed petroleum product prices to “levels not seen in years”.
For the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the price of oil skyrocketed past $100 per barrel this week, driven by ongoing energy uncertainty after the United States and Israel’s war on Iran began on February 28. Shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz abutting Iran dropped 95% in the first week of March, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. About 20 percent of the world’s oil comes from the Gulf region, and most of it is shipped on massive tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Officials had planned, according to statements given by Mr. Madbouly following the last increase, to freeze prices for at least a year but were forced to change policy after oil rose above $115 a barrel earlier this week.
As a net energy importer, Egypt simply could not absorb the cost gap any longer. In February, a joint Egyptian-Emirati venture announced plans to invest nearly $516 million during 2026-27 to increase its crude production by nearly 15 percent. Egypt also approved a plan to drill 100 new exploratory oil and gas wells during 2026 as part of a five-year investment plan.
The Iran War and Global Oil Turmoil
The war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has turned global energy markets upside down in under two weeks.
The Iran war has triggered the biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil industry, according to an analysis by Rapidan Energy. Saudi Aramco, the world’s top oil exporter, warned of the war’s potentially “catastrophic consequences” for oil markets if flows don’t resume through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Early on Monday, both oil prices surged above $100 a barrel, crossing that mark for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Brent neared $120 a barrel at one point Monday.Prices cooled sharply on Tuesday. U.S. crude oil fell 11.94% to close at $83.45 per barrel, while Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 11.28% to settle at $87.80. The drop came after President Trump said the war would end “very soon,” though his own Defense Secretary later contradicted that message.
Even at Tuesday’s lower levels, oil remains far above the roughly $67 to $73 range seen before the strikes on Iran began on February 28.
The Group of Seven major developed economies said Monday that they stood ready to support global energy markets through the release of oil reserves if necessary. The International Energy Agency will hold an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday to discuss a possible release of emergency stockpiles.How Egyptians Are Feeling the SqueezeThe fuel hike does not exist in isolation. It is landing on top of an economy where prices are already moving in the wrong direction.
Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate rose to 13.4% in February 2026 from 11.9% in the previous month, well above the market forecast of 12%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 2.8% in February, accelerating from a 1.2% gain in January and marking the fastest monthly increase since February 2024.Economist Moustafa Badra told The National that Tuesday’s inflationary rise was expected as of early last month after the U.S. began to move its aircraft carriers into the region’s waters, spooking markets and commencing a departure of foreign capital from Egypt’s debt markets that has depreciated the value of the local currency by 10 per cent since.Public transportation costs went up too. Cairo’s governor approved on Tuesday a 1 to 3 pound increase in bus and mass transit fares. Microbuses, the affordable ride millions of working-class Egyptians depend on every day, also raised their prices.
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly ordered governors to clamp down on electricity theft and warned that merchants caught inflating prices to take advantage of the crisis would be tried in military courts. The overnight move came a day after the government announced new electricity-saving measures aimed at reducing fuel use and strengthening energy security. The plan targets reduced lighting in public places while maintaining electricity flows to homes and industry.
The Bigger Picture: IMF Reforms and What Comes Next
Egypt’s fuel price story goes much deeper than one week of war. Egypt has raised fuel prices four times over the past two years under an $8 billion loan program from the International Monetary Fund.
Egypt’s current IMF arrangements include an Extended Fund Facility originally approved in December 2022 at $3 billion and expanded to $8 billion in March 2024, to address foreign currency shortages and high inflation. The 46-month program, recently extended through December 15, 2026, supports macroeconomic stabilisation, subsidy reforms, and private-sector-led growth. Egypt plans to remove subsidies on most electricity and petroleum products starting in fiscal year 2026-2027, except for diesel and household-use liquefied petroleum gas.The central question now is whether the Iran war will derail the progress Egypt has made.The Central Bank of Egypt had projected inflation to average 10.5% in 2026, compared to 28.3% in 2024. That target now looks difficult to reach with global oil in turmoil and the Egyptian pound weakening.
Just two weeks ago, the IMF released about $2.3 billion more from its loan program after it said reforms were steadying the economy. Egypt needs continued IMF support, and that means continued reform, even when the timing feels painful.For the millions of Egyptians who lined up at gas stations early Tuesday morning facing higher prices, the global politics of oil and war are not abstract concepts. They are the reason a full tank costs more and a bus ride home just got a little heavier. In a country that has weathered revolution, currency crises, and a pandemic, resilience is nothing new. But patience has its limits, and the weeks ahead will test just how much more ordinary families can absorb.
