A new survey from Tel Aviv University shows a striking shift in Arab Israeli political attitudes, with more than 75% now supporting the idea of an Arab party joining Israel’s governing coalition after the Gaza war. It’s the highest level of support recorded in years, and it signals a political landscape that’s changing faster than many expected.
Attitudes Shift as Post-War Politics Take Shape
The Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Center released its findings on Tuesday, and the numbers tell a story that feels both surprising and familiar.
Two short sentences carry weight here.
Support for coalition participation has jumped from 63% in mid-2023 to over 75% today — a clear upward trend tied to the political aftershocks of the October 7 attacks and the long months of fighting that followed.
Researchers found that 77.4% of respondents now support an Arab party participating in the next government in some form. Nearly half say any coalition is acceptable, while 31.8% prefer joining a center-left alliance. The numbers reflect a level of pragmatic engagement that even seasoned analysts didn’t anticipate.
Election Scenarios: Turnout Stable, but Unified Lists Transform Outcomes
The survey modeled different election scenarios to understand where Arab representation could land if Israelis voted today.
Turnout among Arab communities appears stable at 52.4%, mirroring the 53.2% turnout in the 2022 elections. That stability matters — and it challenges assumptions that political fatigue would push turnout down after the war.
One-sentence interlude.
Arab voters aren’t checking out; they’re recalibrating.
Based on those numbers, Hadash-Ta’al would win an estimated 5.3 seats, and Ra’am would secure 3.9 seats, both above the electoral threshold. Balad, however, would again fall short at 2.6 seats.
The dramatic change appears when researchers tested a revival of the Joint List, the united slate that historically brought Arab parties under one banner:
| Scenario | Estimated Turnout | Seats Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Separate Arab Parties | 52.4% | Hadash-Ta’al: 5.3, Ra’am: 3.9, Balad: 2.6 (fails threshold) |
| Unified Joint List | 61.8% | 15.5 seats |
A one-sentence pause.
The jump from around nine seats to more than fifteen is enormous in Israel’s fragmented parliament.
This level of support for unity hasn’t appeared since the mid-2010s, when the Joint List broke electoral records and briefly reshaped coalition debates.
What Matters Most to Arab Citizens Right Now
Beyond coalition politics, the survey asked Arab Israelis to rank the issues that most affect their daily lives.
And here, the answers were emphatic.
A full 74% identified one priority above all others: combating violence and crime inside Arab communities. The level of concern reflects years of rising homicide rates, gang activity, and the sense that state institutions haven’t kept pace with the crisis.
A short pause.
People want safety first — and overwhelmingly so.
Far smaller numbers prioritized other issues:
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Resolving the Palestinian issue: 7.6%
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Improving planning and construction policy in Arab towns: 7%
These lower figures don’t mean those topics are unimportant; they simply show how deeply violence has shaken daily life. The study also found that 76.6% of Arab citizens reported feeling a weak sense of personal security — a sentiment echoed repeatedly in community protests over the last two years.
Identity, Belonging and a Complex Social Map
The survey devoted a section to identity — a topic that often reveals more than straightforward political questions. The responses show a layered sense of belonging that doesn’t fit easily into standard labels.
The strongest component of identity was Arab identity, cited by 35.9%, followed by Israeli citizenship at 31.7%.
One-sentence reflection.
Those two numbers alone illustrate the duality many Arab citizens live with every day.
Religious affiliation came next at 17.3%, and Palestinian identity at 14.7%. Rather than indicating conflict between identities, researchers say the mix reflects the multifaceted way Arab Israelis see themselves socially, politically and culturally.
And yet, beneath those nuances, the rising violence in Arab society remains the issue shaping mood and engagement. More than 51.9% said violence is the leading cause of negative sentiment in their daily lives.
Coalition Participation: Pragmatism or New Political Energy?
The jump to 75% support for coalition participation has sparked debate among political observers.
Some argue the shift is driven by pure pragmatism. After the Gaza war, many Arab citizens want political influence — real influence — and coalition participation is the clearest path.
Others see deeper changes.
A sense that the long-standing barrier between Arab parties and the center of Israeli politics might be thinning, at least temporarily.
One short sentence.
And voters seem ready to test that boundary.
The Dayan Center noted that these findings align with similar surveys conducted during the war, suggesting the shift isn’t a post-war anomaly but part of a sustained trend toward political engagement.
What Comes Next in Arab-Israeli Politics?
Even though this study doesn’t attempt to predict outcomes beyond seat projections or turnout, its tone hints at a political moment that could shape Israel’s next electoral cycle.
Arab parties have fractured and reunited before, sometimes in the same year. But the numbers here suggest a public that’s weary of fragmentation when it costs them representation.
One more rhythmic pause.
Unity, for the first time in a while, seems like a winning message.
And with violence and personal security dominating the community’s priorities, many voters appear ready to reward parties that promise concrete results over symbolic victories.
As Israel edges closer to its next political turning point, this study offers a snapshot of an electorate that is engaged, frustrated, pragmatic and — most importantly — willing to participate in shaping a government after one of the most traumatic periods in the country’s recent history.
